TSCO
Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) closed at $30.57 as of 2026-05-15, trading 35.6% below its 200-week moving average of $47.51. This places TSCO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -35.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 4, TSCO is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.59 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1634 weeks of data, TSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $16.0 billion, TSCO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 45.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
Over the past 31.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSCO would have grown to $13348, compared to $2710 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.9% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming TSCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TSCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying TSCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.8% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.6% vs +28.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TSCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TSCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.50 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $39.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $46.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $55.19 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $68.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
TSCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1995 | Aug 1995 | 28 | 21.2% | -2.3% | +13708.7% |
| Aug 1995 | Jan 1996 | 23 | 30.8% | +2.2% | +13248.4% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 0.8% | -16.7% | +13248.4% |
| Jun 1996 | Aug 1996 | 8 | 8.8% | -21.4% | +13101.8% |
| Sep 1996 | Mar 1998 | 79 | 35.2% | -16.9% | +13398.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 5.9% | +8.5% | +14550.7% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 2001 | 104 | 62.4% | -28.8% | +15302.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 5.3% | +245.0% | +16678.8% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.2% | -7.8% | +1538.7% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.9% | -5.3% | +1530.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 1.0% | -1.3% | +1529.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Jul 2009 | 91 | 38.0% | -22.4% | +1581.6% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 0.4% | +78.2% | +1579.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 11 | 15.7% | -10.4% | +159.2% |
| Jan 2017 | Dec 2017 | 47 | 32.1% | +8.2% | +137.6% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 17 | 20.9% | +30.1% | +155.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 3.3% | +127.1% | +120.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 10+ | 35.7% | Ongoing | -35.3% |
| Average | 24 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSCO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is trading 35.6% below its 200-week moving average of $47.51. The current price is $30.57.
What is TSCO's 200-week moving average price?
Tractor Supply Company's 200-week moving average is $47.51 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TSCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
TSCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is TSCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TSCO as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 4 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 45.5%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TSCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.4 years, $100 invested in TSCO would have grown to $13348, compared to $2710 for the S&P 500. That's 16.9% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. TSCO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TSCO pay a dividend?
Yes. Tractor Supply Company currently pays a dividend yield of 314.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15