TROW
T. Rowe Price Group Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) closed at $117.35 as of 2026-07-17, trading 20.3% above its 200-week moving average of $97.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 21.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, TROW is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2054 weeks of data, TROW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TROW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $25.1 billion, TROW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
TROW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 437.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.6% reduction over three years. TROW passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TROW would have grown to $8801, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming TROW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TROW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TROW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying TROW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.7% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.4% vs +26.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TROW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TROW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TROW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-31.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $73.97 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $82.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $92.09 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $104.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $121.98 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TROW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TROW has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1987 | Jun 1988 | 42 | 46.7% | -10.0% | +26674.9% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 5 | 5.3% | +70.6% | +30357.0% |
| Oct 1990 | Dec 1990 | 8 | 18.7% | +122.0% | +27427.0% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 13.6% | +30.4% | +1407.0% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 2.0% | -2.3% | +1304.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 17 | 26.6% | -19.9% | +1273.0% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | -12.9% | +1256.8% |
| Jun 2002 | May 2003 | 51 | 33.5% | +12.1% | +1254.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 51.2% | +15.4% | +432.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.5% | +19.1% | +378.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 5.3% | +42.7% | +366.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 2 | 2.1% | +2.8% | +341.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 5.1% | +37.4% | +329.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 3.3% | +39.7% | +322.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 0.2% | -0.3% | +153.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 7.0% | +19.2% | +164.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +9.3% | +144.6% |
| Jul 2016 | Nov 2016 | 16 | 10.9% | +20.1% | +140.9% |
| Jan 2017 | May 2017 | 18 | 5.4% | +77.8% | +141.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +95.4% | +69.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2025 | 173 | 32.0% | -4.7% | +16.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | 12 | 2.6% | N/A | +16.9% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 11 | 12.4% | N/A | +27.4% |
| Average | 18 | — | +26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TROW below its 200-week moving average?
No. T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) is currently 20.3% above its 200-week moving average of $97.54. It would need to fall to $97.54 to cross below the line.
What is TROW's 200-week moving average price?
T. Rowe Price Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $97.54 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TROW drops below its 200-week moving average?
TROW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is TROW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TROW as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.5%. Return on equity is 18.7%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TROW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TROW would have grown to $8801, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. TROW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TROW pay a dividend?
Yes. T. Rowe Price Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 437.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17