TPR
Tapestry, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Luxury Goods Investor Relations →
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) closed at $141.46 as of 2026-07-17, trading 110.8% above its 200-week moving average of $67.09. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 111.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1297 weeks of data, TPR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TPR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.1%.
With a market cap of $28.6 billion, TPR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 60.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 41.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 24.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TPR would have grown to $6634, compared to $1114 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.3% vs 10.2% for the index — confirming TPR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TPR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TPR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying TPR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.6% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to +2.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.5% vs +18.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TPR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TPR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TPR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $129.89 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $138.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $148.56 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $160.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $173.50 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TPR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TPR has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +2.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 7 | 23.1% | +144.7% | +7546.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 1.5% | -47.3% | +574.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 18 | 25.3% | -33.3% | +598.5% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 3 | 2.8% | -23.9% | +543.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Oct 2009 | 69 | 65.5% | -22.2% | +553.1% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 3 | 4.4% | +1.8% | +331.3% |
| Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 0.0% | -28.6% | +297.5% |
| Oct 2013 | Nov 2013 | 3 | 5.2% | -25.7% | +310.9% |
| Jan 2014 | Jun 2016 | 128 | 38.8% | -28.9% | +287.7% |
| Aug 2016 | Mar 2017 | 30 | 11.8% | +25.1% | +373.0% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2021 | 111 | 68.1% | -26.8% | +359.9% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.9% | +20.5% | +409.3% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | +32.5% | +421.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.8% | +0.5% | +424.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 11 | 13.5% | +42.9% | +385.6% |
| Average | 26 | — | +2.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) is currently 110.8% above its 200-week moving average of $67.09. It would need to fall to $67.09 to cross below the line.
What is TPR's 200-week moving average price?
Tapestry, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $67.09 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TPR drops below its 200-week moving average?
TPR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is TPR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TPR as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 60.9%. Price-to-book is 41.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TPR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.9 years, $100 invested in TPR would have grown to $6634, compared to $1114 for the S&P 500. That's 18.3% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. TPR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TPR pay a dividend?
Yes. Tapestry, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 111.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17