TOL
Toll Brothers Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) closed at $150.76 as of 2026-07-17, trading 40.6% above its 200-week moving average of $107.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.31 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2040 weeks of data, TOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TOL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $14.1 billion, TOL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 15.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.5% over the past three years. TOL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TOL would have grown to $4385, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming TOL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TOL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TOL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying TOL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.3% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.3% vs +22.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TOL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TOL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TOL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-18.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $121.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $130.79 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $141.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $154.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $169.94 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TOL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TOL has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1991 | 176 | 60.8% | -35.0% | +8816.3% |
| Oct 1994 | Jan 1995 | 17 | 17.9% | +76.2% | +6268.7% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 5 | 4.3% | +53.3% | +5714.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.4% | -5.7% | +3296.7% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12.5% | -14.7% | +3243.6% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 3.8% | -4.0% | +3182.1% |
| Jun 1999 | Jul 1999 | 2 | 1.5% | -5.7% | +3084.4% |
| Jul 1999 | Apr 2000 | 36 | 23.5% | +10.9% | +3046.9% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 9 | 12.6% | +64.8% | +3010.3% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 11 | 11.7% | -2.3% | +553.8% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 6 | 6.2% | -32.4% | +479.5% |
| Apr 2007 | Jan 2011 | 192 | 49.9% | -19.0% | +466.5% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 3 | 2.5% | +12.6% | +722.7% |
| Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | 3 | 2.2% | +21.4% | +746.1% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.9% | +747.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 27.0% | +64.3% | +839.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2017 | 62 | 26.4% | -3.8% | +408.9% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 3.4% | +2.4% | +369.5% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 15.6% | +22.9% | +399.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -5.8% | +370.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.4% | +29.6% | +366.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 56.5% | +109.5% | +503.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.2% | +79.8% | +279.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 7.5% | +94.2% | +257.8% |
| Average | 25 | — | +22.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) is currently 40.6% above its 200-week moving average of $107.24. It would need to fall to $107.24 to cross below the line.
What is TOL's 200-week moving average price?
Toll Brothers Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $107.24 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TOL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is TOL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TOL as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 15.7%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TOL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in TOL would have grown to $4385, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. TOL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TOL pay a dividend?
Yes. Toll Brothers Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 67.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17