TOL
Toll Brothers Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) closed at $134.92 as of 2026-09-11, trading 21.1% above its 200-week moving average of $111.42. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 27.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.22 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2048 weeks of data, TOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TOL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.7%.
With a market cap of $12.4 billion, TOL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 14.4%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TOL would have grown to $3924, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming TOL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TOL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TOL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying TOL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.3% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +75.3% vs +22.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TOL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TOL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TOL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-07-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $130.47 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $139.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $150.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $162.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $176.57 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | $2.94 | $2.97 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-19 | $2.59 | $2.72 | +5.1% |
| 2026-02-17 | $2.11 | $2.19 | +3.9% |
| 2025-12-08 | $4.88 | $4.58 | -6.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TOL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TOL has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +22.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1991 | 176 | 60.8% | -35.0% | +7879.4% |
| Oct 1994 | Jan 1995 | 17 | 17.9% | +76.2% | +5599.6% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 5 | 4.3% | +53.3% | +5104.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.4% | -5.7% | +2939.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 12.5% | -14.7% | +2892.3% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 3.8% | -4.0% | +2837.2% |
| Jun 1999 | Jul 1999 | 2 | 1.5% | -5.7% | +2749.8% |
| Jul 1999 | Apr 2000 | 36 | 23.5% | +10.9% | +2716.3% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 9 | 12.6% | +64.8% | +2683.5% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 11 | 11.7% | -2.3% | +485.1% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 6 | 6.2% | -32.4% | +418.6% |
| Apr 2007 | Jan 2011 | 192 | 49.9% | -19.0% | +407.0% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 3 | 2.5% | +12.6% | +636.3% |
| Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | 3 | 2.2% | +21.4% | +657.2% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.9% | +658.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 27.0% | +64.3% | +740.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2017 | 62 | 26.4% | -3.8% | +355.4% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 3.4% | +2.4% | +320.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 15.6% | +22.9% | +347.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -5.8% | +320.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.4% | +29.6% | +317.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 56.5% | +109.5% | +440.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 5.2% | +79.8% | +239.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 7.5% | +94.2% | +220.2% |
| Average | 25 | — | +22.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) is currently 21.1% above its 200-week moving average of $111.42. It would need to fall to $111.42 to cross below the line.
What is TOL's 200-week moving average price?
Toll Brothers Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $111.42 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TOL drops below its 200-week moving average?
TOL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is TOL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TOL as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 14.4%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TOL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in TOL would have grown to $3924, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 11.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. TOL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TOL pay a dividend?
Yes. Toll Brothers Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 77.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11