TMUS
T-Mobile US Inc. Communication Services - Telecom Investor Relations →
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) closed at $185.22 as of 2026-05-15, trading 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $180.25. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 7.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 947 weeks of data, TMUS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 58 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TMUS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +43.5%.
With a market cap of $200.4 billion, TMUS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TMUS would have grown to $625, compared to $784 for the S&P 500. TMUS has returned 10.6% annualized vs 11.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,977,852.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TMUS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TMUS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying TMUS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +44.8% after 12 months (median +65.0%), compared to +6.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.5% vs +29.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TMUS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TMUS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TMUS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $180.87 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $191.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $202.75 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $215.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $230.65 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
TMUS has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +43.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2011 | 154 | 67.6% | +5.2% | +598.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2012 | 59 | 47.4% | -9.1% | +1119.8% |
| Oct 2012 | Mar 2013 | 19 | 10.4% | +57.0% | +997.7% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 1 | 13.1% | +120.7% | +1228.6% |
| Average | 58 | — | +43.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMUS below its 200-week moving average?
No. T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) is currently 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $180.25. It would need to fall to $180.25 to cross below the line.
What is TMUS's 200-week moving average price?
T-Mobile US Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $180.25 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TMUS drops below its 200-week moving average?
TMUS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +43.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 58 weeks on average.
Is TMUS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TMUS as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 18.0%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TMUS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in TMUS would have grown to $625, compared to $784 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 11.9% for the index. TMUS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TMUS pay a dividend?
Yes. T-Mobile US Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 220.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15