TMUS

T-Mobile US Inc. Communication Services - Telecom Investor Relations →

NO
2.8% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 7.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $180.25
14-Week RSI 44
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.18

T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) closed at $185.22 as of 2026-05-15, trading 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $180.25. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 7.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 947 weeks of data, TMUS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 58 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TMUS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +43.5%.

With a market cap of $200.4 billion, TMUS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.

Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TMUS would have grown to $625, compared to $784 for the S&P 500. TMUS has returned 10.6% annualized vs 11.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,977,852.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: TMUS vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After TMUS Crosses Below the Line?

Across 4 historical episodes, buying TMUS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +44.8% after 12 months (median +65.0%), compared to +6.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.5% vs +29.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TMUS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TMUS would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.56σ
Current FCF Yield 7.82%
Baseline Yield 7.19%
Historical σ 0.43pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where TMUS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$180.87Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$191.18Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$202.75Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$215.80Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$230.65Unusually expensive — potential trim zone
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 19 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

0 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-05-01ALMEIDA ANDREOfficer$1,000,0165,097N/A

Historical Touches

TMUS has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +43.5% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Mar 2008Mar 201115467.6%+5.2%+598.2%
Aug 2011Sep 20125947.4%-9.1%+1119.8%
Oct 2012Mar 20131910.4%+57.0%+997.7%
Apr 2013May 2013113.1%+120.7%+1228.6%
Average58+43.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TMUS below its 200-week moving average?

No. T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) is currently 2.8% above its 200-week moving average of $180.25. It would need to fall to $180.25 to cross below the line.

What is TMUS's 200-week moving average price?

T-Mobile US Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $180.25 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when TMUS drops below its 200-week moving average?

TMUS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +43.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 58 weeks on average.

Is TMUS a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about TMUS as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 5.4%. Return on equity is 18.0%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does TMUS compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in TMUS would have grown to $625, compared to $784 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 11.9% for the index. TMUS has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does TMUS pay a dividend?

Yes. T-Mobile US Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 220.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-15