TGT
Target Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Retail Investor Relations →
Target Corporation (TGT) closed at $113.26 as of 2026-03-20, trading 8.9% below its 200-week moving average of $124.33. This places TGT in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2721 weeks of data, TGT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TGT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.3%.
With a market cap of $51.3 billion, TGT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 24.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
TGT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 403.00%.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TGT would have grown to $3358, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming TGT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TGT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TGT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying TGT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.5% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TGT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
TGT has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +24.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1975 | 58 | 44.2% | -9.8% | +125400.6% |
| Apr 1980 | Apr 1980 | 1 | 3.2% | +68.1% | +34785.0% |
| Oct 1987 | Sep 1988 | 48 | 35.7% | +63.1% | +10242.9% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 4.3% | +67.3% | +7100.8% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 4 | 3.5% | +54.1% | +7054.6% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.6% | +3970.0% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 1 | 0.0% | +16.3% | +3823.2% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.9% | +3542.0% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 5 | 5.5% | +30.3% | +3555.4% |
| Jan 1996 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | +68.1% | +3418.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 7.8% | +26.9% | +619.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 6.2% | +21.3% | +498.6% |
| Sep 2002 | Nov 2002 | 9 | 15.5% | +20.8% | +497.7% |
| Dec 2002 | May 2003 | 21 | 20.1% | +26.1% | +514.8% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 1 | 0.8% | +31.4% | +473.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 18 | 8.9% | -29.6% | +255.3% |
| May 2008 | Sep 2008 | 17 | 17.1% | -14.8% | +249.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 55 | 50.2% | -6.8% | +240.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Jan 2010 | 11 | 7.1% | +11.5% | +263.8% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.8% | +13.6% | +265.4% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 2.1% | +23.5% | +265.5% |
| May 2014 | May 2014 | 1 | 0.7% | +46.8% | +191.3% |
| Jan 2017 | Dec 2017 | 48 | 21.4% | +27.0% | +132.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 8.3% | +118.0% | +126.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 4.8% | -1.5% | -7.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.4% | -23.4% | -13.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 8.4% | -8.4% | -16.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 3.1% | +10.9% | -20.2% |
| Apr 2023 | Mar 2024 | 49 | 36.3% | +6.6% | -21.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Ongoing | 102+ | 41.1% | Ongoing | -26.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +24.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TGT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Target Corporation (TGT) is trading 8.9% below its 200-week moving average of $124.33. The current price is $113.26.
What is TGT's 200-week moving average price?
Target Corporation's 200-week moving average is $124.33 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TGT drops below its 200-week moving average?
TGT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is TGT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TGT as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Return on equity is 24.0%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TGT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in TGT would have grown to $3358, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. TGT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TGT pay a dividend?
Yes. Target Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 403.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20