T
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AT&T Inc. (T) closed at $24.03 as of 2026-05-15, trading 24.3% above its 200-week moving average of $19.33. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2168 weeks of data, T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought T at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.1%.
With a market cap of $167.0 billion, T is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in T would have grown to $1394, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. T has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 16.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: T vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After T Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying T when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.7% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +10.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.1% vs +21.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment T crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices T would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where T's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.88 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $22.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $27.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.14 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
T has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +6.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 3.6% | +44.3% | +411.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 1.3% | -4.5% | +318.3% |
| Apr 2001 | Jul 2001 | 15 | 9.9% | -15.4% | +324.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 5 | 6.0% | -30.0% | +307.7% |
| Oct 2001 | Jul 2005 | 194 | 51.5% | -33.3% | +339.3% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 2 | 1.7% | +49.5% | +496.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2010 | 99 | 22.5% | +2.5% | +305.9% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 3 | 1.1% | +3.8% | +74.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 6 | 3.0% | +11.3% | +77.0% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 0.7% | +19.9% | +72.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 25 | 11.4% | +26.5% | +70.4% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 3 | 1.5% | +4.8% | +68.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.9% | +9.2% | +68.8% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 12.6% | +14.9% | +71.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 8 | 5.0% | +5.5% | +56.5% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 15 | 7.4% | +2.0% | +57.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 3 | 1.4% | -4.6% | +58.7% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 1.7% | -5.4% | +59.5% |
| Aug 2021 | Jan 2022 | 20 | 14.0% | -5.4% | +56.5% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 11 | 10.3% | +11.2% | +59.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.1% | -0.6% | +59.1% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2022 | 16 | 22.2% | -14.5% | +60.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 3.4% | -4.7% | +57.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 3.6% | -0.2% | +55.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Jan 2024 | 40 | 22.1% | -2.9% | +55.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 2.6% | +73.8% | +64.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +6.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is T below its 200-week moving average?
No. AT&T Inc. (T) is currently 24.3% above its 200-week moving average of $19.33. It would need to fall to $19.33 to cross below the line.
What is T's 200-week moving average price?
AT&T Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.33 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when T drops below its 200-week moving average?
T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is T a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about T as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 18.4%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does T compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in T would have grown to $1394, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. T has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does T pay a dividend?
Yes. AT&T Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 462.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15