T
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AT&T Inc. (T) closed at $21.81 as of 2026-07-17, trading 12.1% above its 200-week moving average of $19.46. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 8.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2177 weeks of data, T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought T at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.8%.
With a market cap of $151.5 billion, T is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in T would have grown to $1282, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. T has returned 7.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 16.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: T vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After T Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying T when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.7% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.6% vs +22.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment T crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices T would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where T's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.67 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $23.62 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.56 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.07 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $41.32 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from T's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
T has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +5.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 3.7% | +44.3% | +370.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 1.4% | -4.5% | +284.7% |
| Apr 2001 | Jul 2001 | 15 | 10.0% | -14.6% | +290.7% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 5 | 6.0% | -30.0% | +275.0% |
| Oct 2001 | Jul 2005 | 195 | 51.5% | -39.4% | +262.9% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 1.8% | +61.3% | +452.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2010 | 100 | 21.0% | +2.5% | +273.3% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 5 | 1.2% | +3.8% | +60.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 6 | 3.1% | +11.3% | +62.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 0.8% | +19.9% | +58.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 23 | 11.5% | +37.6% | +70.4% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 3 | 1.6% | +4.8% | +54.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.0% | +9.2% | +55.3% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 12.7% | +14.9% | +57.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 5.1% | +5.5% | +43.9% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 2 | 1.3% | +4.6% | +45.1% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 15 | 7.5% | +2.0% | +44.5% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 1.6% | -4.6% | +45.9% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 1.8% | -5.4% | +46.7% |
| Aug 2021 | Jan 2022 | 19 | 14.2% | -5.4% | +43.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 11 | 10.4% | +11.2% | +47.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.3% | -0.6% | +46.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.1% | +42.4% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2022 | 16 | 20.9% | -14.5% | +48.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 3.6% | -4.7% | +44.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 3.7% | -3.5% | +40.2% |
| Apr 2023 | Jan 2024 | 40 | 22.2% | -2.9% | +42.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 1.1% | +72.8% | +48.8% |
| Average | 18 | — | +5.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is T below its 200-week moving average?
No. AT&T Inc. (T) is currently 12.1% above its 200-week moving average of $19.46. It would need to fall to $19.46 to cross below the line.
What is T's 200-week moving average price?
AT&T Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.46 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when T drops below its 200-week moving average?
T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is T a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about T as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 18.4%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does T compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in T would have grown to $1282, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 7.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. T has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does T pay a dividend?
Yes. AT&T Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 505.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17