T
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AT&T Inc. (T) closed at $26.06 as of 2026-09-11, trading 30.9% above its 200-week moving average of $19.91. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 29.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2185 weeks of data, T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought T at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.8%.
With a market cap of $178.6 billion, T is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in T would have grown to $1532, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. T has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 16.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: T vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After T Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying T when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.7% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.6% vs +22.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment T crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices T would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where T's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $15.69 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $17.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $20.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $23.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.05 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.5% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.55 | $0.57 | +3.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.47 | $0.52 | +11.6% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.54 | $0.54 | +0.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from T's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
T has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +5.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 3.7% | +44.3% | +462.1% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 1.4% | -4.5% | +359.7% |
| Apr 2001 | Jul 2001 | 15 | 10.0% | -14.6% | +366.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 5 | 6.0% | -30.0% | +348.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Jul 2005 | 195 | 51.5% | -39.4% | +333.7% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 1.8% | +61.3% | +560.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2010 | 100 | 21.0% | +2.5% | +346.1% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 5 | 1.2% | +3.8% | +91.8% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 6 | 3.1% | +11.3% | +94.6% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 0.8% | +19.9% | +89.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 23 | 11.5% | +37.6% | +103.6% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 3 | 1.6% | +4.8% | +85.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.0% | +9.2% | +85.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 12.7% | +14.9% | +88.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 5.1% | +5.5% | +71.9% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 2 | 1.3% | +4.6% | +73.3% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 15 | 7.5% | +2.0% | +72.6% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 1.6% | -4.6% | +74.4% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 1.8% | -5.4% | +75.3% |
| Aug 2021 | Jan 2022 | 19 | 14.2% | -5.4% | +72.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 11 | 10.4% | +11.2% | +75.6% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.3% | -0.6% | +74.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.1% | +70.1% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2022 | 16 | 20.9% | -14.5% | +76.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 3.6% | -4.7% | +72.9% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 3.7% | -3.5% | +67.5% |
| Apr 2023 | Jan 2024 | 40 | 22.2% | -2.9% | +70.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 1.1% | +72.8% | +77.8% |
| Average | 18 | — | +5.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is T below its 200-week moving average?
No. AT&T Inc. (T) is currently 30.9% above its 200-week moving average of $19.91. It would need to fall to $19.91 to cross below the line.
What is T's 200-week moving average price?
AT&T Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.91 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when T drops below its 200-week moving average?
T has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is T a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about T as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 5.7%. Return on equity is 18.3%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does T compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in T would have grown to $1532, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. T has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does T pay a dividend?
Yes. AT&T Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 434.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11