STX
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) closed at $795.47 as of 2026-05-15, trading 496.6% above its 200-week moving average of $133.33. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 503.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, STX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.22 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1174 weeks of data, STX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought STX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.0%.
With a market cap of $178.4 billion, STX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at 1788.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 378.1x book value.
Over the past 22.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in STX would have grown to $8698, compared to $1051 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.9% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming STX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: STX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After STX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying STX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +51.0% after 12 months (median +40.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +79.4% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment STX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices STX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where STX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $460.48 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $518.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $594.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $695.61 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $838.28 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
STX has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +51.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 2 | 3.7% | +9.9% | +10583.0% |
| Mar 2004 | Nov 2004 | 39 | 34.3% | +17.8% | +10336.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Nov 2005 | 8 | 11.0% | +49.3% | +10979.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -76.9% | +8053.6% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 4 | 4.9% | -63.6% | +8105.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2009 | 80 | 84.0% | -51.4% | +7736.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 4.6% | -17.4% | +9107.1% |
| May 2010 | Apr 2011 | 46 | 36.5% | +4.6% | +9309.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 4.0% | +72.7% | +10588.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 13 | 29.0% | +92.0% | +10353.6% |
| Oct 2015 | Jan 2017 | 67 | 54.6% | -3.2% | +3158.9% |
| Jun 2017 | Nov 2017 | 20 | 23.0% | +54.0% | +2822.0% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 1 | 0.4% | +15.7% | +2740.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +55.2% | +2625.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 5.7% | +61.3% | +2643.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.8% | +93.2% | +2327.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 18 | 20.0% | +19.6% | +1446.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 4.1% | +56.4% | +1311.2% |
| Apr 2023 | Jul 2023 | 15 | 12.3% | +51.8% | +1427.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 0.3% | +63.5% | +1224.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 1.7% | +65.7% | +1236.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | +551.7% | +1107.4% |
| Average | 15 | — | +51.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is currently 496.6% above its 200-week moving average of $133.33. It would need to fall to $133.33 to cross below the line.
What is STX's 200-week moving average price?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc's 200-week moving average is $133.33 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when STX drops below its 200-week moving average?
STX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is STX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about STX as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.9%. Return on equity is 1788.0%. Price-to-book is 378.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does STX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22.6 years, $100 invested in STX would have grown to $8698, compared to $1051 for the S&P 500. That's 21.9% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. STX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does STX pay a dividend?
Yes. Seagate Technology Holdings plc currently pays a dividend yield of 37.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15