SPOT
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Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) closed at $436.94 as of 2026-05-15, trading 25.7% above its 200-week moving average of $347.61. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 20.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.32 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 375 weeks of data, SPOT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SPOT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.0%.
With a market cap of $89.8 billion, SPOT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at 38.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.2x book value.
Share count has increased 6.5% over three years, indicating dilution. SPOT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 7.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SPOT would have grown to $315, compared to $292 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 15.9% for the index — confirming SPOT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 415.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SPOT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SPOT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying SPOT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.0% after 12 months (median +84.0%), compared to +6.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.2% vs +40.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SPOT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SPOT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SPOT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $385.71 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $412.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $444.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $480.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $523.92 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
SPOT has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +36.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | Jul 2019 | 19 | 18.0% | -7.3% | +207.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Dec 2019 | 18 | 24.8% | +70.1% | +195.7% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 15 | 16.8% | +131.2% | +198.0% |
| Jan 2022 | Dec 2023 | 98 | 62.1% | -49.9% | +123.5% |
| Average | 38 | — | +36.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPOT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) is currently 25.7% above its 200-week moving average of $347.61. It would need to fall to $347.61 to cross below the line.
What is SPOT's 200-week moving average price?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $347.61 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SPOT drops below its 200-week moving average?
SPOT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is SPOT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SPOT as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 0.8%. Return on equity is 38.0%. Price-to-book is 9.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SPOT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.2 years, $100 invested in SPOT would have grown to $315, compared to $292 for the S&P 500. That's 17.1% annualized vs 15.9% for the index. SPOT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15