SHOP
Shopify Inc. Technology - E-Commerce Platform Investor Relations →
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) closed at $116.78 as of 2026-03-20, trading 43.8% above its 200-week moving average of $81.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 52.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 517 weeks of data, SHOP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHOP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +77.6%.
With a market cap of $152.4 billion, SHOP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 11.3x book value.
Share count has increased 2.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 10 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHOP would have grown to $3667, compared to $370 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 43.4% vs 14.0% for the index — confirming SHOP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SHOP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHOP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying SHOP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +82.7% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +165.0% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHOP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
SHOP has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +77.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 6 | 9.4% | +208.5% | +4112.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2024 | 102 | 64.9% | -33.6% | +77.8% |
| Feb 2024 | Sep 2024 | 32 | 32.1% | +57.9% | +43.7% |
| Average | 47 | — | +77.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is currently 43.8% above its 200-week moving average of $81.19. It would need to fall to $81.19 to cross below the line.
What is SHOP's 200-week moving average price?
Shopify Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $81.19 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SHOP drops below its 200-week moving average?
SHOP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +77.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 47 weeks on average.
Is SHOP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SHOP as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 0.8%. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 11.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SHOP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10 years, $100 invested in SHOP would have grown to $3667, compared to $370 for the S&P 500. That's 43.4% annualized vs 14.0% for the index. SHOP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20