SHAK
Shake Shack Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) closed at $60.41 as of 2026-05-15, trading 28.9% below its 200-week moving average of $85.01. This places SHAK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -17.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 541 weeks of data, SHAK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SHAK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.1%.
With a market cap of $2.6 billion, SHAK is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.5%. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Share count has increased 2.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 10.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SHAK would have grown to $175, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. SHAK has returned 5.5% annualized vs 15.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SHAK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SHAK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying SHAK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +49.9% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +21.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.2% vs +37.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SHAK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SHAK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SHAK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $63.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $79.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $105.65 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $158.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $318.59 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
SHAK has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +49.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Dec 2017 | 100 | 39.3% | +4.8% | +73.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 8.8% | +28.4% | +52.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 4.1% | +44.8% | +42.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 33.9% | +214.8% | +56.1% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.4% | +70.5% | +23.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 7 | 5.7% | +112.1% | +21.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.4% | -25.6% | -13.5% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 5 | 11.9% | -33.3% | -13.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Jun 2023 | 67 | 44.6% | -15.0% | -11.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 14 | 22.1% | +43.2% | -7.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 4.1% | +94.9% | -8.3% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 1 | 3.9% | N/A | -22.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 2.5% | N/A | -25.7% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 28.9% | Ongoing | -13.9% |
| Average | 16 | — | +49.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHAK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is trading 28.9% below its 200-week moving average of $85.01. The current price is $60.41.
What is SHAK's 200-week moving average price?
Shake Shack Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $85.01 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SHAK drops below its 200-week moving average?
SHAK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is SHAK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SHAK as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.5%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SHAK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.4 years, $100 invested in SHAK would have grown to $175, compared to $451 for the S&P 500. That's 5.5% annualized vs 15.6% for the index. SHAK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15