SBUX
Starbucks Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) closed at $98.74 as of 2026-09-11, trading 9.1% above its 200-week moving average of $90.48. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 15.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.29 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1737 weeks of data, SBUX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought SBUX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.5%.
With a market cap of $112.6 billion, SBUX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. The stock trades at -14.7x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in SBUX would have grown to $18138, compared to $3065 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming SBUX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $994,500.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: SBUX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After SBUX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying SBUX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.0% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.1% vs +31.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment SBUX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices SBUX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where SBUX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $99.52 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $104.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $110.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $116.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $123.82 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.65 | $0.85 | +30.8% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.44 | $0.50 | +14.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.59 | $0.56 | -4.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.56 | $0.52 | -6.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from SBUX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
SBUX has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +24.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 7.6% | +45.5% | +3670.8% |
| Jun 2007 | Dec 2009 | 130 | 70.7% | -32.5% | +954.2% |
| Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 1 | 0.3% | +41.2% | +1067.5% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.7% | +46.9% | +1075.2% |
| Jun 2018 | Aug 2018 | 10 | 7.3% | +67.2% | +131.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.5% | +87.0% | +97.0% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.0% | +33.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2022 | 18 | 15.9% | +31.5% | +35.1% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 2 | 4.3% | +16.0% | +29.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 3.3% | +13.7% | +29.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 5 | 0.9% | +9.4% | +16.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 4 | 1.0% | +2.9% | +15.1% |
| Feb 2024 | Aug 2024 | 24 | 22.3% | +27.5% | +13.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | -3.9% | +13.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 5.4% | +3.1% | +17.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 12.5% | +13.1% | +25.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 3.6% | +24.4% | +17.3% |
| Aug 2025 | Jan 2026 | 20 | 11.6% | +24.3% | +14.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.8% | N/A | +15.1% |
| Average | 13 | — | +24.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBUX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is currently 9.1% above its 200-week moving average of $90.48. It would need to fall to $90.48 to cross below the line.
What is SBUX's 200-week moving average price?
Starbucks Corporation's 200-week moving average is $90.48 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when SBUX drops below its 200-week moving average?
SBUX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is SBUX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about SBUX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Price-to-book is -14.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does SBUX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in SBUX would have grown to $18138, compared to $3065 for the S&P 500. That's 16.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. SBUX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does SBUX pay a dividend?
Yes. Starbucks Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 251.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11