RTX

RTX Corporation Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →

NO
57.5% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 60.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $125.53
14-Week RSI 60
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.7x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.19

RTX Corporation (RTX) closed at $197.68 as of 2026-09-11, trading 57.5% above its 200-week moving average of $125.53. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 60.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 3314 weeks of data, RTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RTX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.0%.

With a market cap of $266.4 billion, RTX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.5% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RTX would have grown to $10915, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming RTX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: RTX vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After RTX Crosses Below the Line?

Across 19 historical episodes, buying RTX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.8% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +18.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.1% vs +31.2% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RTX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RTX would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.09σ
Current FCF Yield 4.12%
Baseline Yield 4.10%
Historical σ 0.26pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where RTX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$174.53Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$184.91Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$196.61Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$209.88Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$225.08Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-23$1.66$1.89+13.7%
2026-04-21$1.52$1.78+16.9%
2026-01-27$1.47$1.55+5.3%
2025-10-21$1.41$1.70+20.6%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 23 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from RTX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -2.01σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.09σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.13σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +3.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +0.4pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-0.8pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

RTX has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +21.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jun 1963Jul 196321.7%+12.1%+220676.0%
Jul 1963Feb 1964288.2%+12.3%+230057.6%
Mar 1968Mar 196810.1%+19.0%+88262.0%
May 1968May 196810.1%+10.3%+85375.5%
Jun 1968Nov 19682315.6%+0.6%+85814.7%
Dec 1968Feb 19691210.0%-38.1%+82974.4%
May 1969May 197215758.5%-56.7%+77424.6%
Jun 1972Jul 197289.8%-13.2%+127269.4%
Aug 1972Aug 197210.3%-24.2%+127495.5%
Jun 1973Oct 19731817.9%-8.4%+146692.4%
Oct 1973Nov 19745427.5%+5.2%+158140.0%
Dec 1974Dec 197422.9%+63.2%+147121.2%
Jan 1982Jul 19822621.7%+62.4%+38383.5%
Aug 1982Aug 198221.8%+79.8%+36710.5%
Oct 1987Oct 19885226.0%+19.9%+16709.4%
Oct 1988Dec 198885.2%+34.4%+14304.1%
Sep 1990Oct 199033.9%+8.0%+12813.1%
Oct 1990Nov 199021.1%+15.0%+12410.7%
Apr 1991Apr 199110.0%+30.4%+12134.5%
May 1991May 199120.9%+23.9%+12239.0%
Sep 1991Oct 199122.0%+14.2%+12167.4%
Oct 1992Dec 1992109.8%+28.1%+11075.4%
Jan 1993Apr 1993126.0%+40.1%+10728.3%
Sep 2001Nov 2001927.4%+39.9%+2443.2%
Jul 2002Jul 200211.7%+22.8%+1624.1%
Aug 2002Dec 20022017.2%+26.9%+1635.4%
Jan 2003Apr 2003139.7%+52.6%+1558.4%
Sep 2008Aug 20094735.8%+12.0%+774.8%
Sep 2009Oct 200910.5%+22.2%+681.0%
Aug 2015Oct 201598.2%+20.5%+335.5%
Nov 2015Feb 20161211.1%+16.1%+320.5%
Oct 2016Oct 201611.5%+25.5%+299.8%
Dec 2018Jan 201933.0%+44.0%+252.8%
Mar 2020Nov 20203733.1%+21.9%+245.9%
Dec 2020Mar 2021129.1%+21.1%+207.5%
Sep 2023Oct 2023713.4%+61.2%+176.9%
Nov 2023Nov 202310.1%+52.3%+161.5%
Average16+21.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is RTX below its 200-week moving average?

No. RTX Corporation (RTX) is currently 57.5% above its 200-week moving average of $125.53. It would need to fall to $125.53 to cross below the line.

What is RTX's 200-week moving average price?

RTX Corporation's 200-week moving average is $125.53 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when RTX drops below its 200-week moving average?

RTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.

Is RTX a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about RTX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does RTX compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in RTX would have grown to $10915, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. RTX has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does RTX pay a dividend?

Yes. RTX Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 148.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-11