RH
RH Consumer Discretionary - Home Furnishings Investor Relations →
RH (RH) closed at $123.17 as of 2026-05-15, trading 52.5% below its 200-week moving average of $259.55. This places RH in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -48.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, RH is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 658 weeks of data, RH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 47 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +114.3%.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, RH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.0%, which is notably high. The stock trades at 38.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RH would have grown to $180, compared to $520 for the S&P 500. RH has returned 4.7% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying RH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +95.3% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +23.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.8% vs +47.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-01-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $112.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $134.76 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $167.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $220.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $324.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
RH has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +114.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | Jul 2017 | 79 | 62.5% | -58.2% | +76.7% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 30.2% | +136.7% | +116.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +527.8% | +50.0% |
| May 2022 | Jul 2023 | 62 | 34.4% | -10.8% | -58.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2024 | 67 | 43.9% | -24.1% | -65.2% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 65+ | 58.5% | Ongoing | -63.8% |
| Average | 47 | — | +114.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, RH (RH) is trading 52.5% below its 200-week moving average of $259.55. The current price is $123.17.
What is RH's 200-week moving average price?
RH's 200-week moving average is $259.55 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RH drops below its 200-week moving average?
RH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +114.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 47 weeks on average.
Is RH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RH as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 13.0%. Price-to-book is 38.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.7 years, $100 invested in RH would have grown to $180, compared to $520 for the S&P 500. That's 4.7% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. RH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15