RCL
Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary - Cruise Lines Investor Relations →
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) closed at $260.29 as of 2026-05-15, trading 54.9% above its 200-week moving average of $168.08. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 64.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, RCL is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1676 weeks of data, RCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RCL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.3%.
With a market cap of $69.8 billion, RCL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 49.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.1x book value.
Share count has increased 5.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 32.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RCL would have grown to $2943, compared to $2890 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming RCL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RCL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RCL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying RCL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.1% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.9% vs +35.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RCL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RCL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RCL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $246.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $261.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $278.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $298.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $321.14 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
RCL has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +17.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 3 | 1.1% | -2.6% | +3133.3% |
| Apr 1995 | May 1995 | 3 | 5.1% | +13.2% | +3251.2% |
| May 1995 | Feb 1996 | 37 | 13.2% | +21.7% | +3236.8% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 4 | 2.2% | +25.7% | +3237.0% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 1.4% | +56.4% | +3169.1% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 6 | 3.2% | +103.5% | +3134.4% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 4.2% | -2.9% | +1285.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Jun 2003 | 168 | 71.5% | -16.0% | +1229.8% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | 0.0% | +22.7% | +835.9% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 9 | 10.5% | +16.8% | +819.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2007 | 22 | 11.6% | -38.7% | +710.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 113 | 83.1% | -60.8% | +729.9% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 19.5% | +41.2% | +1018.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 9.9% | -0.3% | +1133.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 20.2% | -4.7% | +1073.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 13.0% | +28.9% | +1110.3% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 5.7% | +33.1% | +1115.9% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 16 | 13.4% | +46.1% | +1102.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.7% | +45.3% | +199.9% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2023 | 166 | 76.6% | +17.1% | +234.4% |
| Average | 29 | — | +17.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) is currently 54.9% above its 200-week moving average of $168.08. It would need to fall to $168.08 to cross below the line.
What is RCL's 200-week moving average price?
Royal Caribbean Group's 200-week moving average is $168.08 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RCL drops below its 200-week moving average?
RCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is RCL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RCL as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 49.6%. Price-to-book is 7.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RCL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.2 years, $100 invested in RCL would have grown to $2943, compared to $2890 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. RCL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RCL pay a dividend?
Yes. Royal Caribbean Group currently pays a dividend yield of 192.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15