RACE
Ferrari N.V. Consumer Discretionary - Luxury Automotive Investor Relations →
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) closed at $376.83 as of 2026-07-17, trading 3.2% above its 200-week moving average of $365.05. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 512 weeks of data, RACE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 5 weeks. Historically, investors who bought RACE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +75.1%.
With a market cap of $66.3 billion, RACE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.5%. Return on equity stands at 42.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.4x book value.
Over the past 9.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in RACE would have grown to $785, compared to $401 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.1% vs 15.0% for the index — confirming RACE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 32.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: RACE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After RACE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying RACE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +71.0% after 12 months (median +74.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +131.5% vs +50.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment RACE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices RACE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where RACE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $287.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $307.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $331.50 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $358.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $391.26 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from RACE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
RACE has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +75.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +76.2% | +121.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +74.0% | +115.6% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 4 | 4.8% | N/A | +10.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 15 | 11.5% | N/A | +8.9% |
| Average | 5 | — | +75.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RACE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is currently 3.2% above its 200-week moving average of $365.05. It would need to fall to $365.05 to cross below the line.
What is RACE's 200-week moving average price?
Ferrari N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $365.05 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when RACE drops below its 200-week moving average?
RACE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +75.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 5 weeks on average.
Is RACE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about RACE as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 1.5%. Return on equity is 42.0%. Price-to-book is 14.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does RACE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.9 years, $100 invested in RACE would have grown to $785, compared to $401 for the S&P 500. That's 23.1% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. RACE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does RACE pay a dividend?
Yes. Ferrari N.V. currently pays a dividend yield of 110.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17