QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) closed at $201.49 as of 2026-05-15, trading 42.0% above its 200-week moving average of $141.87. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, QCOM is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1748 weeks of data, QCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought QCOM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +70.4%.
With a market cap of $212.4 billion, QCOM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 36.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.8x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in QCOM would have grown to $36306, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming QCOM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: QCOM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After QCOM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying QCOM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +59.4% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +108.1% vs +25.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment QCOM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices QCOM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where QCOM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $86.48 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $100.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $121.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $151.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $202.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
QCOM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +70.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1994 | Aug 1994 | 13 | 21.2% | +73.0% | +31171.0% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 5.9% | +684.9% | +12481.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 8.3% | +945.2% | +12694.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 21.7% | -37.4% | +1358.5% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2003 | 105 | 54.7% | -24.6% | +1209.7% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 1.3% | +49.5% | +731.5% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.7% | +27.5% | +728.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 2.0% | -5.2% | +723.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 5.5% | +1.5% | +744.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 3.4% | -4.8% | +694.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 26 | 26.0% | +3.1% | +658.1% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.1% | -6.9% | +653.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.5% | +10.6% | +648.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 8 | 9.5% | +39.7% | +674.4% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 19 | 19.2% | +51.5% | +689.9% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 0.8% | -25.1% | +343.8% |
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2016 | 56 | 30.3% | -12.8% | +333.7% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | -11.5% | +327.4% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | -14.8% | +332.1% |
| Jan 2017 | Oct 2017 | 40 | 16.4% | +31.3% | +378.4% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 8 | 10.6% | +10.4% | +361.4% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.0% | +41.2% | +336.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 0.7% | +59.8% | +339.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +68.0% | +337.9% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 7 | 9.5% | +81.2% | +368.2% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +1.5% | +98.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 4.0% | +15.0% | +104.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 2.9% | +32.9% | +95.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.4% | +51.9% | +87.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 12.2% | +45.5% | +84.7% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 4.3% | +91.6% | +88.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 12.2% | +46.8% | +86.9% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 8.6% | +1.8% | +61.8% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2 | 2.6% | N/A | +47.7% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 9.7% | N/A | +49.4% |
| Average | 10 | — | +70.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QCOM below its 200-week moving average?
No. QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is currently 42.0% above its 200-week moving average of $141.87. It would need to fall to $141.87 to cross below the line.
What is QCOM's 200-week moving average price?
QUALCOMM Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $141.87 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when QCOM drops below its 200-week moving average?
QCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +70.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is QCOM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about QCOM as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 36.1%. Price-to-book is 7.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does QCOM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in QCOM would have grown to $36306, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 19.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. QCOM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does QCOM pay a dividend?
Yes. QUALCOMM Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 183.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15