QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) closed at $171.78 as of 2026-07-17, trading 18.5% above its 200-week moving average of $144.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1757 weeks of data, QCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought QCOM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +70.4%.
With a market cap of $181.1 billion, QCOM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 36.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.7x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in QCOM would have grown to $31067, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.6% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming QCOM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: QCOM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After QCOM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying QCOM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +59.3% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +108.0% vs +25.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment QCOM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices QCOM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where QCOM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $86.14 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $105.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $136.69 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $193.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $330.80 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from QCOM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
QCOM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +70.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1994 | Aug 1994 | 13 | 21.2% | +73.0% | +26658.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 5.9% | +684.9% | +10666.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 8.3% | +945.2% | +10848.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 21.7% | -37.4% | +1148.0% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2003 | 105 | 54.7% | -24.6% | +1020.7% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 1.3% | +49.5% | +611.6% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 0.7% | +27.5% | +608.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 2.1% | -5.2% | +605.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 5.6% | +1.5% | +622.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 3.4% | -4.8% | +580.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 26 | 26.0% | +3.1% | +548.7% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.1% | -6.9% | +545.0% |
| Oct 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +10.6% | +540.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 8 | 9.2% | +39.7% | +562.6% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 19 | 19.3% | +51.5% | +575.9% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 0.9% | -25.1% | +279.8% |
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2016 | 56 | 30.3% | -12.8% | +271.1% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | -11.5% | +265.7% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.6% | -14.8% | +269.8% |
| Jan 2017 | Oct 2017 | 40 | 16.4% | +31.3% | +309.4% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 8 | 10.6% | +10.4% | +294.8% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +41.2% | +273.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 0.8% | +59.8% | +276.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +68.0% | +274.7% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 7 | 9.6% | +81.2% | +300.6% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +1.5% | +70.0% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 4.0% | +15.0% | +75.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 2.9% | +32.9% | +67.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.4% | +51.9% | +60.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 12.2% | +45.5% | +58.1% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 4.4% | +91.6% | +61.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 13 | 12.2% | +46.8% | +60.0% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 8.7% | +1.8% | +38.4% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2 | 2.6% | N/A | +26.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 9.7% | N/A | +27.1% |
| Average | 10 | — | +70.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QCOM below its 200-week moving average?
No. QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is currently 18.5% above its 200-week moving average of $144.92. It would need to fall to $144.92 to cross below the line.
What is QCOM's 200-week moving average price?
QUALCOMM Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $144.92 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when QCOM drops below its 200-week moving average?
QCOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +70.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is QCOM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about QCOM as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 36.1%. Price-to-book is 6.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does QCOM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in QCOM would have grown to $31067, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 18.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. QCOM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does QCOM pay a dividend?
Yes. QUALCOMM Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 216.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17