PSX
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Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $259.47 as of 2026-09-11, trading 105.6% above its 200-week moving average of $126.19. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 103.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, PSX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 704 weeks of data, PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PSX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.6%.
With a market cap of $104.0 billion, PSX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 23.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 13.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PSX would have grown to $590, compared to $612 for the S&P 500. PSX has returned 14.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -32.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PSX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PSX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying PSX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.5% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +27.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PSX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PSX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PSX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $153.23 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $170.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $193.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $221.88 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $260.83 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $7.50 | $9.41 | +25.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | $-0.39 | $0.49 | +225.7% |
| 2026-02-04 | $2.15 | $2.47 | +14.7% |
| 2025-10-29 | $2.16 | $2.52 | +16.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PSX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PSX has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +30.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +32.5% | +551.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.6% | +42.5% | +326.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 4.5% | -4.1% | +316.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 44.9% | +17.0% | +348.8% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 7.3% | +11.6% | +302.9% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 12 | 18.8% | +14.7% | +323.0% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 12.9% | +45.5% | +316.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 4.1% | +84.9% | +175.7% |
| Average | 10 | — | +30.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently 105.6% above its 200-week moving average of $126.19. It would need to fall to $126.19 to cross below the line.
What is PSX's 200-week moving average price?
Phillips 66's 200-week moving average is $126.19 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PSX drops below its 200-week moving average?
PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is PSX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PSX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 23.5%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PSX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.6 years, $100 invested in PSX would have grown to $590, compared to $612 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. PSX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PSX pay a dividend?
Yes. Phillips 66 currently pays a dividend yield of 197.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11