PSX
Phillips 66 Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Phillips 66 (PSX) closed at $175.47 as of 2026-03-20, trading 54.8% above its 200-week moving average of $113.32. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 53.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, PSX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 679 weeks of data, PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PSX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $70.3 billion, PSX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 15.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 13.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PSX would have grown to $394, compared to $520 for the S&P 500. PSX has returned 11.0% annualized vs 13.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $1,269,200. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -32.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PSX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PSX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying PSX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.4% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +27.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PSX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PSX has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +32.5% | +335.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +42.5% | +185.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.5% | -13.2% | +174.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 44.9% | +17.0% | +199.7% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 7.3% | +11.6% | +169.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 12 | 19.8% | +14.7% | +182.5% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 10 | 13.5% | +45.5% | +177.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 4.0% | N/A | +84.1% |
| Average | 11 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently 54.8% above its 200-week moving average of $113.32. It would need to fall to $113.32 to cross below the line.
What is PSX's 200-week moving average price?
Phillips 66's 200-week moving average is $113.32 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PSX drops below its 200-week moving average?
PSX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is PSX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PSX as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 15.4%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PSX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.1 years, $100 invested in PSX would have grown to $394, compared to $520 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 13.4% for the index. PSX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PSX pay a dividend?
Yes. Phillips 66 currently pays a dividend yield of 290.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20