PNC
The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) closed at $252.86 as of 2026-07-17, trading 56.2% above its 200-week moving average of $161.91. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 56.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, PNC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2595 weeks of data, PNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PNC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.0%.
With a market cap of $100.9 billion, PNC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.6%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PNC would have grown to $2463, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. PNC has returned 10.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PNC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PNC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PNC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +6.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.4% vs +25.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PNC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PNC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PNC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $200.34 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $209.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $220.06 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $231.45 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $244.08 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PNC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PNC has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +7.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1976 | Dec 1976 | 7 | 8.4% | +11.4% | +41253.6% |
| Mar 1977 | Mar 1977 | 1 | 0.9% | +10.8% | +39260.7% |
| Sep 1977 | Oct 1977 | 2 | 3.6% | +23.5% | +38334.6% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 1 | 0.1% | +25.9% | +38334.6% |
| Nov 1977 | Nov 1977 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.0% | +38334.6% |
| Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 2 | 4.5% | +22.8% | +35410.2% |
| Feb 1980 | May 1980 | 13 | 19.0% | +37.6% | +35028.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 2.3% | -37.1% | +4421.0% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 6 | 3.2% | -44.7% | +4364.3% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1991 | 56 | 56.6% | -19.6% | +4304.8% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 2 | 1.0% | +68.2% | +4673.1% |
| Oct 1994 | Jan 1995 | 13 | 12.9% | +25.1% | +2885.0% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 2 | 0.2% | +26.9% | +2624.8% |
| Dec 1999 | May 2000 | 23 | 16.7% | +60.2% | +1219.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.6% | -16.7% | +923.4% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 0.5% | -25.1% | +910.5% |
| Jun 2002 | Oct 2003 | 70 | 30.1% | -4.0% | +882.7% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 4 | 1.9% | +14.5% | +844.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 3.2% | -31.5% | +636.6% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -67.3% | +612.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 8.3% | -27.8% | +603.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 5.3% | -21.1% | +607.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2010 | 68 | 69.2% | +28.4% | +837.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +10.6% | +617.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 8.8% | -13.6% | +623.5% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 1 | 3.3% | -7.5% | +635.1% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 20.3% | +12.5% | +623.1% |
| Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | 4 | 7.3% | +15.2% | +640.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 30.6% | +60.8% | +178.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 23.4% | +15.0% | +109.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 1.4% | +43.3% | +72.5% |
| Average | 13 | — | +7.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PNC below its 200-week moving average?
No. The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) is currently 56.2% above its 200-week moving average of $161.91. It would need to fall to $161.91 to cross below the line.
What is PNC's 200-week moving average price?
The PNC Financial Services Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $161.91 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PNC drops below its 200-week moving average?
PNC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is PNC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PNC as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Return on equity is 12.6%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PNC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in PNC would have grown to $2463, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 10.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. PNC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PNC pay a dividend?
Yes. The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 313.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17