PG
The Procter & Gamble Company Consumer Staples - Household Products Investor Relations →
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) closed at $149.98 as of 2026-07-17, trading 1.3% above its 200-week moving average of $148.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3319 weeks of data, PG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.0%.
With a market cap of $349.2 billion, PG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 31.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
PG is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 287.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.2% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PG would have grown to $2742, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. PG has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.4% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +4.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.2% vs +22.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $137.58 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $143.29 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $149.50 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $156.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $163.68 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PG has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +12.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Dec 1962 | 2 | 2.7% | +14.9% | +76563.6% |
| Feb 1963 | Mar 1963 | 4 | 3.4% | +17.5% | +75884.5% |
| Mar 1965 | Sep 1966 | 82 | 14.2% | -13.2% | +70310.8% |
| Jan 1967 | Jan 1967 | 1 | 0.9% | +31.9% | +70265.3% |
| Aug 1974 | Oct 1974 | 10 | 19.5% | +3.5% | +24748.4% |
| Nov 1974 | Jan 1975 | 11 | 9.1% | +13.5% | +24412.3% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 14 | 9.6% | +12.1% | +23257.7% |
| Dec 1975 | Jan 1976 | 5 | 2.2% | +6.3% | +22325.4% |
| Feb 1976 | Jun 1976 | 19 | 9.6% | -0.9% | +22838.7% |
| Jan 1977 | Aug 1977 | 31 | 15.1% | -1.3% | +22657.4% |
| Sep 1977 | Nov 1977 | 9 | 3.9% | +7.9% | +23023.0% |
| Dec 1977 | Dec 1977 | 2 | 1.2% | +7.3% | +22906.8% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 16 | 10.8% | +11.5% | +23362.0% |
| Feb 1979 | May 1980 | 62 | 16.1% | -8.6% | +22554.6% |
| Jun 1980 | Jul 1980 | 4 | 3.6% | +11.0% | +23603.9% |
| Sep 1980 | Jun 1981 | 36 | 13.1% | +0.9% | +23617.1% |
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 8 | 2.5% | +26.3% | +23656.3% |
| Mar 2000 | Nov 2001 | 87 | 29.0% | +31.3% | +1019.9% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 2.3% | +17.0% | +668.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 0.0% | +14.5% | +651.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 3.1% | +22.9% | +662.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | +1.0% | +324.3% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 1.0% | +9.1% | +323.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Nov 2009 | 42 | 23.3% | +8.7% | +332.7% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 5.3% | +25.7% | +181.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Jul 2018 | 16 | 8.2% | +34.3% | +136.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 0.5% | +19.0% | +33.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2 | 0.6% | N/A | +3.5% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 7 | 4.2% | N/A | +6.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 3.4% | N/A | +4.7% |
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | 5 | 3.8% | N/A | +2.4% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 0.6% | Ongoing | +2.0% |
| Average | 16 | — | +12.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PG below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is currently 1.3% above its 200-week moving average of $148.00. It would need to fall to $148.00 to cross below the line.
What is PG's 200-week moving average price?
The Procter & Gamble Company's 200-week moving average is $148.00 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is PG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PG as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 31.1%. Price-to-book is 6.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in PG would have grown to $2742, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. PG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PG pay a dividend?
Yes. The Procter & Gamble Company currently pays a dividend yield of 287.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17