OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) closed at $54.86 as of 2026-07-17, trading 2.9% above its 200-week moving average of $53.34. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2276 weeks of data, OXY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OXY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $54.6 billion, OXY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 9.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OXY would have grown to $1747, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. OXY has returned 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OXY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OXY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying OXY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.2% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.3% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OXY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OXY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OXY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.74 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $52.55 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $68.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $97.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $168.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OXY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OXY has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 1.7% | +77.3% | +2147.3% |
| Nov 1987 | Mar 1988 | 18 | 12.7% | +11.0% | +1738.9% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 2 | 1.3% | +20.8% | +1644.2% |
| Jul 1988 | Jul 1988 | 2 | 0.6% | +20.9% | +1636.7% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 3 | 0.6% | +18.7% | +1628.4% |
| Oct 1988 | Oct 1988 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.8% | +1613.0% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 1.3% | +29.4% | +1621.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Jul 1991 | 47 | 26.2% | +2.3% | +1426.2% |
| Oct 1991 | May 1992 | 30 | 20.5% | -20.0% | +1523.9% |
| Jun 1992 | Mar 1993 | 38 | 22.1% | +7.7% | +1531.0% |
| Oct 1993 | May 1994 | 30 | 14.4% | +18.0% | +1564.8% |
| Jul 1998 | Jun 1999 | 45 | 32.3% | -7.2% | +1043.7% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 3.0% | +17.9% | +1054.7% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 7 | 10.1% | +8.9% | +1090.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 2 | 6.9% | +12.4% | +1080.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Apr 2000 | 10 | 26.3% | +17.3% | +1077.0% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 2.0% | +39.3% | +1028.7% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 4 | 6.9% | +37.7% | +1058.7% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 6 | 6.6% | +27.5% | +1000.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 16.2% | +85.4% | +112.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2009 | 1 | 0.1% | +50.4% | +73.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 7.5% | +66.1% | +85.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 5.7% | +23.8% | +21.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 0.0% | +20.5% | +10.8% |
| Oct 2012 | Jan 2013 | 11 | 8.9% | +24.0% | +6.8% |
| Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 5 | 4.9% | +23.0% | +7.6% |
| Nov 2014 | Jun 2016 | 85 | 18.9% | -8.1% | -6.4% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 4 | 2.5% | -16.7% | -3.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2017 | 63 | 17.9% | -9.4% | +1.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 5 | 5.1% | +7.4% | +3.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 8.1% | -38.1% | -0.4% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -31.1% | -0.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.8% | -54.8% | +2.1% |
| Apr 2019 | Jan 2022 | 146 | 81.7% | -76.0% | +3.6% |
| Oct 2024 | Mar 2026 | 71 | 28.9% | -15.2% | +14.7% |
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2026 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +2.5% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 1.7% | N/A | +3.9% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 8.4% | Ongoing | +5.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OXY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is currently 2.9% above its 200-week moving average of $53.34. It would need to fall to $53.34 to cross below the line.
What is OXY's 200-week moving average price?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $53.34 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OXY drops below its 200-week moving average?
OXY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is OXY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OXY as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 5.6%. Return on equity is 4.1%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OXY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in OXY would have grown to $1747, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. OXY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OXY pay a dividend?
Yes. Occidental Petroleum Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 194.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17