ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) closed at $113.11 as of 2026-05-15, trading 65.1% above its 200-week moving average of $68.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, ON is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.61 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1310 weeks of data, ON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.4%.
With a market cap of $44.0 billion, ON is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 6.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 25.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ON would have grown to $1740, compared to $917 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming ON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying ON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.7% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +63.6% vs +29.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ON would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ON's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $57.14 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $65.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $76.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $91.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $113.92 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
ON has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +20.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2001 | Nov 2003 | 137 | 86.6% | +4.9% | +2332.5% |
| Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 1 | 1.7% | -28.9% | +2237.0% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 19 | 28.2% | +8.1% | +2580.3% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 5.7% | +70.1% | +3033.2% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 14.3% | +117.2% | +3572.4% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 10 | 20.9% | -22.9% | +1653.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 64.0% | +15.5% | +1511.3% |
| Jul 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | -7.5% | +1449.5% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.1% | -3.5% | +1410.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 11.1% | -0.1% | +1447.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 5.2% | +51.6% | +1468.8% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 21.1% | +47.7% | +1386.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 13.0% | -11.9% | +1464.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 8.4% | -21.6% | +1424.4% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | -6.4% | +1430.6% |
| May 2012 | Jan 2013 | 38 | 24.7% | +6.7% | +1414.2% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 0.9% | +18.5% | +1335.4% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 8 | 9.3% | +21.3% | +1342.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 2.8% | +16.8% | +1346.4% |
| Jul 2013 | Dec 2013 | 23 | 13.3% | +17.2% | +1319.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 5 | 10.4% | +33.7% | +1412.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 19.5% | +52.5% | +1226.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 2 | 2.6% | +59.9% | +1188.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +31.2% | +673.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 13 | 40.6% | +124.6% | +554.6% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.5% | -27.5% | +74.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2026 | 61 | 49.9% | -16.7% | +71.5% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 | 15.4% | N/A | +70.1% |
| Average | 15 | — | +20.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ON below its 200-week moving average?
No. ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is currently 65.1% above its 200-week moving average of $68.49. It would need to fall to $68.49 to cross below the line.
What is ON's 200-week moving average price?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's 200-week moving average is $68.49 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ON drops below its 200-week moving average?
ON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is ON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ON as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 7.5%. Price-to-book is 6.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.2 years, $100 invested in ON would have grown to $1740, compared to $917 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. ON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15