NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed at $218.29 as of 2026-09-11, trading 90.5% above its 200-week moving average of $114.60. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 102.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1394 weeks of data, NVDA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NVDA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +54.1%.
With a market cap of $5.3 trillion, NVDA is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.8%. Return on equity stands at 117.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 23.0x book value.
NVDA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 26.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NVDA would have grown to $244051, compared to $830 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 33.7% vs 8.2% for the index — confirming NVDA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 193.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NVDA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NVDA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying NVDA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +66.9% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +9.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +103.2% vs +28.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NVDA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NVDA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NVDA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-17.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $195.62 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $203.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $212.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $222.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $233.07 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $2.09 | $2.22 | +6.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | $1.77 | $1.87 | +5.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | $1.54 | $1.62 | +5.3% |
| 2025-11-19 | $1.26 | $1.30 | +3.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NVDA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NVDA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +54.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 0.1% | +313.3% | +174704.2% |
| Jun 2002 | Feb 2005 | 139 | 69.0% | +4.5% | +126280.5% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 9 | 16.0% | +88.4% | +113722.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2011 | 131 | 65.0% | -12.7% | +76328.5% |
| Jun 2011 | Oct 2011 | 19 | 24.7% | -22.3% | +60279.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 3.3% | -18.3% | +68427.8% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 5 | 4.9% | -6.2% | +70558.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 15 | 12.1% | -4.9% | +71191.4% |
| Sep 2012 | May 2013 | 35 | 19.3% | +13.6% | +71138.2% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 1.4% | +33.5% | +66703.8% |
| Jul 2013 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 0.1% | +27.8% | +65951.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 12.5% | +232.7% | +1650.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +54.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVDA below its 200-week moving average?
No. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is currently 90.5% above its 200-week moving average of $114.60. It would need to fall to $114.60 to cross below the line.
What is NVDA's 200-week moving average price?
NVIDIA Corporation's 200-week moving average is $114.60 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NVDA drops below its 200-week moving average?
NVDA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +54.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is NVDA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NVDA as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 0.8%. Return on equity is 117.2%. Price-to-book is 23.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NVDA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.8 years, $100 invested in NVDA would have grown to $244051, compared to $830 for the S&P 500. That's 33.7% annualized vs 8.2% for the index. NVDA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NVDA pay a dividend?
Yes. NVIDIA Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 46.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11