NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation Industrials - Defense Investor Relations →
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) closed at $518.97 as of 2026-09-11, trading 4.7% above its 200-week moving average of $495.57. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2284 weeks of data, NOC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NOC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.3%.
With a market cap of $73.7 billion, NOC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 27.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NOC would have grown to $7544, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming NOC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NOC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NOC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying NOC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.5% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +18.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.9% vs +22.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NOC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NOC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NOC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $419.35 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $454.02 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $494.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $543.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $603.80 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $6.82 | $7.68 | +12.7% |
| 2026-04-21 | $6.06 | $6.14 | +1.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $6.96 | $7.23 | +3.8% |
| 2025-10-21 | $6.46 | $7.67 | +18.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NOC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NOC has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +21.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1991 | 173 | 50.6% | +5.0% | +9549.5% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 2 | 1.6% | +21.9% | +11648.6% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 3 | 1.2% | +42.5% | +11955.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 19.3% | +1.1% | +2828.5% |
| Dec 1998 | May 2000 | 77 | 42.8% | -26.2% | +2738.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Aug 2000 | 10 | 14.6% | +16.7% | +2529.1% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 4.5% | +35.8% | +2516.9% |
| Mar 2003 | Apr 2003 | 7 | 4.3% | +20.3% | +2159.9% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 1.6% | +25.9% | +2051.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2010 | 73 | 45.0% | -15.9% | +1240.6% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 16 | 9.5% | +24.5% | +1265.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 5.7% | +36.9% | +1242.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +35.7% | +1251.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +49.4% | +150.5% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 2.6% | +25.5% | +97.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 10 | 4.9% | +41.4% | +97.8% |
| Average | 24 | — | +21.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is currently 4.7% above its 200-week moving average of $495.57. It would need to fall to $495.57 to cross below the line.
What is NOC's 200-week moving average price?
Northrop Grumman Corporation's 200-week moving average is $495.57 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NOC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NOC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is NOC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NOC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 27.0%. Price-to-book is 4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NOC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in NOC would have grown to $7544, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 13.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NOC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NOC pay a dividend?
Yes. Northrop Grumman Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 190.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11