NKE
NIKE Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Investor Relations →
NIKE Inc. (NKE) closed at $41.88 as of 2026-05-15, trading 50.2% below its 200-week moving average of $84.13. This places NKE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -47.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 17, NKE is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2323 weeks of data, NKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.2%.
With a market cap of $62.0 billion, NKE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NKE would have grown to $2273, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. NKE has returned 9.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 9 open-market purchases totaling $9,186,871. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while NKE is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.1% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.3% vs +32.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NKE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NKE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-02-28).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $33.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $37.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $43.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $51.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $62.79 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
NKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +31.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1983 | Dec 1985 | 110 | 51.7% | -52.0% | +25417.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 2.5% | +36.0% | +27432.5% |
| Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 7 | 18.5% | +76.3% | +30079.8% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 4.0% | +25.2% | +30079.8% |
| Dec 1986 | Feb 1987 | 8 | 12.0% | +41.3% | +32938.9% |
| Aug 1993 | Aug 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.7% | +3447.9% |
| Aug 1993 | May 1994 | 36 | 17.8% | +22.8% | +3456.4% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 0.1% | +87.9% | +3021.6% |
| Oct 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 0.5% | +99.1% | +3001.9% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 11 | 18.8% | +29.5% | +1054.0% |
| Nov 1998 | Jan 1999 | 10 | 17.1% | +15.9% | +969.4% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 6 | 13.4% | -13.1% | +847.9% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 2000 | 50 | 47.8% | +13.3% | +815.5% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 20 | 22.5% | +57.4% | +1099.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 3.6% | +1.6% | +929.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Mar 2003 | 31 | 12.7% | +12.1% | +884.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | 5 | 5.9% | +36.9% | +345.0% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.8% | +328.7% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 11 | 19.9% | +40.2% | +352.3% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +50.8% | +323.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +105.6% | -32.4% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | +7.5% | -58.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 9.4% | +7.1% | -58.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 17 | 26.7% | -7.6% | -58.7% |
| May 2023 | Ongoing | 157+ | 50.2% | Ongoing | -61.4% |
| Average | 20 | — | +31.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NKE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, NIKE Inc. (NKE) is trading 50.2% below its 200-week moving average of $84.13. The current price is $41.88.
What is NKE's 200-week moving average price?
NIKE Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $84.13 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NKE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is NKE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NKE as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 17 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 16.0%. Price-to-book is 4.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NKE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in NKE would have grown to $2273, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NKE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NKE pay a dividend?
Yes. NIKE Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 392.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15