MT
ArcelorMittal S.A. Basic Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) closed at $66.45 as of 2026-07-17, trading 109.6% above its 200-week moving average of $31.70. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 110.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.21 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1462 weeks of data, MT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 66 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.3%.
With a market cap of $50.1 billion, MT is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.4%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MT would have grown to $299, compared to $1080 for the S&P 500. MT has returned 4.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -58.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying MT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.8% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.7% vs +34.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $52.24 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $56.68 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $61.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $68.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $76.08 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MT has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +5.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Dec 1999 | 76 | 75.6% | -30.3% | +141.6% |
| Jan 2000 | Sep 2003 | 189 | 91.9% | -77.2% | +198.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2017 | 433 | 74.5% | -19.6% | -8.4% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 1 | 2.0% | +44.2% | +207.9% |
| Apr 2017 | Jul 2017 | 13 | 15.8% | +48.2% | +231.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 9 | 9.9% | -23.7% | +220.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.6% | -18.3% | +232.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 93 | 66.3% | -37.5% | +248.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 7.5% | +22.5% | +246.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 5 | 9.2% | +11.3% | +206.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 0.7% | +9.4% | +172.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Feb 2025 | 35 | 19.5% | +22.1% | +172.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 6.4% | +117.8% | +174.1% |
| Average | 66 | — | +5.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MT below its 200-week moving average?
No. ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is currently 109.6% above its 200-week moving average of $31.70. It would need to fall to $31.70 to cross below the line.
What is MT's 200-week moving average price?
ArcelorMittal S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $31.70 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MT drops below its 200-week moving average?
MT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 66 weeks on average.
Is MT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MT as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 5.4%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.1 years, $100 invested in MT would have grown to $299, compared to $1080 for the S&P 500. That's 4.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. MT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MT pay a dividend?
Yes. ArcelorMittal S.A. currently pays a dividend yield of 92.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17