MT
ArcelorMittal S.A. Basic Materials - Steel Investor Relations →
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) closed at $60.15 as of 2026-05-15, trading 102.3% above its 200-week moving average of $29.73. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 109.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1453 weeks of data, MT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 66 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.3%.
With a market cap of $45.7 billion, MT is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.4%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MT would have grown to $270, compared to $1071 for the S&P 500. MT has returned 3.6% annualized vs 8.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -58.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying MT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.8% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.0% vs +33.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $51.08 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $55.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $60.74 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $67.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $74.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
MT has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +5.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1998 | Dec 1999 | 76 | 75.6% | -30.3% | +118.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Sep 2003 | 189 | 91.9% | -77.2% | +170.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2017 | 433 | 74.5% | -19.6% | -17.1% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 1 | 2.0% | +44.2% | +178.7% |
| Apr 2017 | Jul 2017 | 13 | 15.8% | +48.2% | +200.4% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 9 | 9.9% | -23.7% | +189.8% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.6% | -18.3% | +200.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 93 | 66.3% | -37.5% | +215.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 7.5% | +22.5% | +213.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 5 | 9.1% | +11.3% | +177.6% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 0.7% | +9.4% | +146.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Feb 2025 | 35 | 19.4% | +22.1% | +146.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 6.3% | +117.8% | +148.1% |
| Average | 66 | — | +5.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MT below its 200-week moving average?
No. ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is currently 102.3% above its 200-week moving average of $29.73. It would need to fall to $29.73 to cross below the line.
What is MT's 200-week moving average price?
ArcelorMittal S.A.'s 200-week moving average is $29.73 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MT drops below its 200-week moving average?
MT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 66 weeks on average.
Is MT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MT as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 5.4%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.9 years, $100 invested in MT would have grown to $270, compared to $1071 for the S&P 500. That's 3.6% annualized vs 8.9% for the index. MT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MT pay a dividend?
Yes. ArcelorMittal S.A. currently pays a dividend yield of 100.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15