MSFT
Microsoft Corporation Technology - Software Investor Relations →
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) closed at $421.92 as of 2026-05-15, trading 11.4% above its 200-week moving average of $378.57. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2048 weeks of data, MSFT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSFT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.5%.
With a market cap of $3.1 trillion, MSFT is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 34.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
MSFT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSFT would have grown to $25610, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MSFT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSFT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSFT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying MSFT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +1.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.9% vs +11.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSFT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSFT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSFT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $284.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $314.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $351.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $398.97 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $460.86 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
MSFT has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 11.2% | +3.9% | +2391.9% |
| Nov 2000 | Apr 2001 | 20 | 30.6% | +13.4% | +2345.1% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 1.3% | -17.0% | +1995.9% |
| Jul 2001 | Jun 2004 | 151 | 38.6% | -30.7% | +2014.8% |
| Jul 2004 | Jul 2004 | 2 | 1.5% | +1.3% | +2363.1% |
| Aug 2004 | Sep 2004 | 8 | 3.1% | +15.1% | +2428.4% |
| Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 1 | 3.1% | +17.6% | +2447.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 5 | 2.1% | +14.5% | +2417.4% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 13 | 9.2% | +26.5% | +2402.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 6.3% | -7.9% | +2153.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 57 | 41.5% | -1.5% | +2173.1% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 22 | 10.6% | -1.7% | +2073.2% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 1.2% | +1.0% | +2070.9% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | +35.0% | +2122.0% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 0.0% | +24.8% | +2072.1% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 7 | 5.6% | +27.9% | +2101.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.0% | +32.0% | +2176.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.0% | +17.2% | +2122.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 4.4% | N/A | +18.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +9.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSFT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is currently 11.4% above its 200-week moving average of $378.57. It would need to fall to $378.57 to cross below the line.
What is MSFT's 200-week moving average price?
Microsoft Corporation's 200-week moving average is $378.57 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSFT drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSFT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is MSFT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSFT as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 34.0%. Price-to-book is 7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSFT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in MSFT would have grown to $25610, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 18.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MSFT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSFT pay a dividend?
Yes. Microsoft Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 86.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15