MRVL

Marvell Technology Inc. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →

NO
177.0% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 165.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $85.23
14-Week RSI 45
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.6x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.16

Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) closed at $236.10 as of 2026-09-11, trading 177.0% above its 200-week moving average of $85.23. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 165.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1319 weeks of data, MRVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRVL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.3%.

With a market cap of $212.2 billion, MRVL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 16.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 11.3x book value.

MRVL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 25.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRVL would have grown to $4125, compared to $979 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.8% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming MRVL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: MRVL vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MRVL Crosses Below the Line?

Across 28 historical episodes, buying MRVL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.1% after 12 months (median -21.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 39% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.8% vs +28.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRVL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRVL would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +0.20σ
Current FCF Yield 0.83%
Baseline Yield 1.05%
Historical σ 0.14pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where MRVL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-01.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$181.30Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$208.25Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$244.60Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$296.32Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$375.78Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-08-27$0.93$0.94+1.0%
2026-05-27$0.79$0.80+0.6%
2026-03-05$0.79$0.80+1.1%
2025-12-02$0.74$0.76+3.0%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 19 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from MRVL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -1.30σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -3.11σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -1.57σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -1.9pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 15th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -0.9pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+47.5pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

MRVL has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +15.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jun 2001Dec 20012661.6%-9.9%+3776.7%
Dec 2001Dec 200121.1%-47.3%+2996.6%
Feb 2002Mar 200247.9%-50.6%+2943.1%
Apr 2002May 20035559.4%-26.2%+3313.9%
Jun 2003Jun 200312.0%+54.4%+3529.4%
Mar 2007Jul 20071513.8%-33.8%+1550.1%
Jul 2007Nov 200912272.9%-12.9%+1545.2%
Aug 2010Aug 201012.6%-13.3%+1811.6%
May 2011May 201133.0%-4.5%+1789.5%
Jun 2011Jun 2011310.4%-14.7%+1826.2%
Aug 2011Sep 2011614.2%-12.4%+2030.4%
Sep 2011Oct 201110.2%-36.2%+1810.3%
Oct 2011Nov 201139.6%-41.8%+2011.0%
Nov 2011Jan 2012610.0%-37.9%+2011.0%
Apr 2012Nov 20138151.1%-21.8%+1878.5%
Dec 2013Dec 201344.4%+12.9%+1872.0%
Aug 2014Aug 201412.1%-1.6%+1950.2%
Oct 2014Oct 201425.8%-21.4%+2063.7%
Jul 2015Jul 20165433.4%-18.0%+1983.4%
Aug 2016Aug 201621.9%+38.5%+2126.4%
Dec 2018Dec 201810.3%+76.5%+1553.9%
Mar 2020Mar 202010.9%+153.5%+1200.3%
Oct 2022Nov 2022411.5%+42.9%+546.5%
Dec 2022Jan 2023716.4%+28.1%+476.6%
Feb 2023May 20231212.5%+54.8%+444.8%
Oct 2023Oct 202312.7%+73.3%+403.7%
Mar 2025Jun 20251021.8%+53.4%+282.1%
Aug 2025Sep 202521.7%+245.3%+276.3%
Average15+15.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MRVL below its 200-week moving average?

No. Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) is currently 177.0% above its 200-week moving average of $85.23. It would need to fall to $85.23 to cross below the line.

What is MRVL's 200-week moving average price?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $85.23 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when MRVL drops below its 200-week moving average?

MRVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.

Is MRVL a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about MRVL as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 16.5%. Price-to-book is 11.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does MRVL compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 25.3 years, $100 invested in MRVL would have grown to $4125, compared to $979 for the S&P 500. That's 15.8% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. MRVL has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does MRVL pay a dividend?

Yes. Marvell Technology Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 10.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-11