MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) closed at $395.93 as of 2026-09-11, trading 136.6% above its 200-week moving average of $167.35. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 134.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, MPC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 746 weeks of data, MPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MPC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $111.2 billion, MPC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 42.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 35.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 14.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPC would have grown to $3361, compared to $745 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 27.6% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming MPC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying MPC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.0% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +21.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +82.9% vs +50.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $232.88 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $259.51 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $293.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $336.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $395.03 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $13.95 | $17.73 | +27.1% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.75 | $1.65 | +120.6% |
| 2026-02-03 | $2.71 | $4.07 | +50.1% |
| 2025-11-04 | $3.16 | $3.01 | -4.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPC has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 5.2% | +139.4% | +3261.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Aug 2016 | 26 | 18.6% | +54.6% | +1599.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.4% | +1214.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 13.0% | -35.3% | +836.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 13.3% | -20.6% | +917.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 3 | 0.3% | -11.2% | +786.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 65.2% | +22.0% | +908.2% |
| Average | 13 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is currently 136.6% above its 200-week moving average of $167.35. It would need to fall to $167.35 to cross below the line.
What is MPC's 200-week moving average price?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $167.35 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is MPC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 81 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 8.3%. Return on equity is 42.1%. Price-to-book is 5.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.4 years, $100 invested in MPC would have grown to $3361, compared to $745 for the S&P 500. That's 27.6% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. MPC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MPC pay a dividend?
Yes. Marathon Petroleum Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 102.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11