MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) closed at $312.60 as of 2026-07-17, trading 98.1% above its 200-week moving average of $157.81. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 81.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, MPC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 738 weeks of data, MPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MPC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $91.3 billion, MPC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 27.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 35.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 14.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPC would have grown to $2647, compared to $724 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.8% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming MPC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying MPC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.0% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +21.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +82.9% vs +50.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $205.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $235.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $274.67 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $330.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $413.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPC has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 5.2% | +139.4% | +2546.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Aug 2016 | 26 | 18.6% | +54.6% | +1238.2% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.4% | +935.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 13.0% | -35.3% | +637.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 13.3% | -20.6% | +701.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 3 | 0.3% | -11.2% | +597.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 65.2% | +22.0% | +693.9% |
| Average | 13 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is currently 98.1% above its 200-week moving average of $157.81. It would need to fall to $157.81 to cross below the line.
What is MPC's 200-week moving average price?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 200-week moving average is $157.81 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is MPC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPC as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 27.5%. Price-to-book is 5.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.2 years, $100 invested in MPC would have grown to $2647, compared to $724 for the S&P 500. That's 25.8% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. MPC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MPC pay a dividend?
Yes. Marathon Petroleum Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 128.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17