MOS
The Mosaic Company Materials - Fertilizers Investor Relations →
The Mosaic Company (MOS) closed at $23.59 as of 2026-03-20, trading 29.1% below its 200-week moving average of $33.27. This places MOS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -13.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1942 weeks of data, MOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.0%.
With a market cap of $7.5 billion, MOS is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.8%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MOS would have grown to $166, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. MOS has returned 1.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying MOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.3% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +19.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.5% vs +41.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +7.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1989 | Jul 1989 | 9 | 10.8% | -3.9% | +126.4% |
| Sep 1989 | Feb 1990 | 20 | 14.2% | -7.6% | +112.6% |
| Mar 1990 | Jul 1990 | 16 | 13.0% | +23.4% | +117.4% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 11 | 13.2% | +51.7% | +120.3% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +44.3% | +119.2% |
| Nov 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.9% | +45.4% | +119.2% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 2.0% | +72.5% | +121.5% |
| Jul 1992 | Jul 1992 | 2 | 2.4% | -29.7% | +85.6% |
| Nov 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 4.7% | -1.8% | +83.9% |
| Feb 1993 | Dec 1993 | 44 | 33.8% | +23.3% | +85.1% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 3.5% | +32.4% | +82.5% |
| Apr 1994 | Sep 1994 | 21 | 23.4% | +21.5% | +79.1% |
| Oct 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 1.7% | +59.8% | +75.8% |
| Oct 1994 | Dec 1994 | 7 | 10.0% | +78.1% | +75.8% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 0.6% | -32.1% | +14.8% |
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 3.5% | -29.6% | +17.4% |
| Jun 1998 | Mar 2004 | 300 | 57.6% | -36.4% | +8.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 41.3% | +13.5% | -20.7% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 4 | 9.1% | +31.0% | -27.5% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 12.0% | +0.9% | -25.5% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 5.7% | +33.1% | -30.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 6.0% | +61.3% | -31.0% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 16 | 28.4% | +47.0% | -38.7% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 9.6% | -15.8% | -47.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 5.1% | -9.3% | -50.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Jul 2012 | 43 | 26.3% | +4.9% | -45.9% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 13 | 11.9% | -14.8% | -43.8% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.7% | -46.7% |
| Jun 2013 | Feb 2015 | 87 | 29.5% | -14.3% | -47.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Jul 2018 | 178 | 49.9% | -38.0% | -39.6% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 0.3% | -33.1% | -8.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.8% | -23.3% | -5.6% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 95 | 61.9% | -48.5% | -3.8% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | -4.3% | -22.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.8% | -24.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 4.9% | -16.3% | -23.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Ongoing | 115+ | 36.2% | Ongoing | -22.9% |
| Average | 28 | — | +7.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, The Mosaic Company (MOS) is trading 29.1% below its 200-week moving average of $33.27. The current price is $23.59.
What is MOS's 200-week moving average price?
The Mosaic Company's 200-week moving average is $33.27 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MOS drops below its 200-week moving average?
MOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is MOS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MOS as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 4.8%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MOS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in MOS would have grown to $166, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 1.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. MOS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MOS pay a dividend?
Yes. The Mosaic Company currently pays a dividend yield of 373.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20