MO
Altria Group, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Tobacco Investor Relations →
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) closed at $68.98 as of 2026-09-11, trading 44.6% above its 200-week moving average of $47.71. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 44.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3327 weeks of data, MO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.3%.
With a market cap of $115.2 billion, MO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, which is healthy. The stock trades at -43.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MO would have grown to $7810, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying MO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.6% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +17.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +53.2% vs +22.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $64.37 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $68.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $74.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $80.37 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $87.63 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.50 | $1.48 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.25 | $1.32 | +5.9% |
| 2026-01-29 | $1.32 | $1.30 | -1.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.45 | $1.45 | +0.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +18.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Mar 1963 | 13 | 6.4% | -2.7% | +4111195.5% |
| Jul 1963 | Aug 1963 | 6 | 4.8% | +10.2% | +4072574.1% |
| Sep 1963 | Sep 1963 | 3 | 3.4% | +14.5% | +3931683.1% |
| Oct 1963 | Mar 1964 | 21 | 9.2% | +9.0% | +3917301.1% |
| Aug 1964 | Aug 1964 | 1 | 0.1% | +20.0% | +3873317.2% |
| Aug 1966 | Aug 1966 | 1 | 0.2% | +92.3% | +3437952.6% |
| Sep 1966 | Sep 1966 | 1 | 0.4% | +100.9% | +3427524.9% |
| Aug 1974 | Dec 1974 | 17 | 21.4% | +7.1% | +414952.6% |
| Jan 1975 | Mar 1975 | 9 | 11.4% | +41.0% | +425936.2% |
| Mar 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 1.8% | +20.4% | +376558.4% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 14 | 12.1% | +12.4% | +362376.5% |
| Mar 1976 | Mar 1976 | 2 | 0.4% | +11.5% | +338779.2% |
| Mar 1993 | Jan 1994 | 43 | 19.7% | +7.9% | +11606.9% |
| Feb 1994 | Aug 1994 | 29 | 16.0% | +12.5% | +9573.4% |
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 7 | 3.6% | +63.0% | +9245.6% |
| Mar 1999 | May 1999 | 5 | 2.4% | -35.9% | +4192.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 2 | 3.3% | -19.6% | +4021.2% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 2000 | 58 | 46.6% | -18.2% | +3933.8% |
| Mar 2003 | May 2003 | 11 | 20.5% | +72.9% | +3242.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 1.7% | +13.8% | +1119.5% |
| Nov 2008 | Jul 2009 | 35 | 15.0% | +28.1% | +1187.0% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 6 | 2.8% | -0.6% | +127.7% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 1 | 0.0% | -11.6% | +122.3% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2021 | 121 | 36.3% | -9.8% | +119.5% |
| Average | 17 | — | +18.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is currently 44.6% above its 200-week moving average of $47.71. It would need to fall to $47.71 to cross below the line.
What is MO's 200-week moving average price?
Altria Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $47.71 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MO drops below its 200-week moving average?
MO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is MO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 7.8%. Price-to-book is -43.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MO would have grown to $7810, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 13.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MO pay a dividend?
Yes. Altria Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 645.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11