MET
MetLife Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
MetLife Inc. (MET) closed at $97.14 as of 2026-09-11, trading 38.0% above its 200-week moving average of $70.38. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, MET is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1331 weeks of data, MET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MET at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.0%.
With a market cap of $61.7 billion, MET is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 25.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MET would have grown to $667, compared to $1032 for the S&P 500. MET has returned 7.7% annualized vs 9.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MET vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MET Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying MET when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.3% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.2% vs +30.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MET crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MET would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MET's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $87.26 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $94.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $102.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $112.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $125.17 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.29 | $2.43 | +6.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.27 | $2.42 | +6.7% |
| 2026-02-04 | $2.34 | $2.49 | +6.3% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.19 | $1.22 | -44.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MET's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MET has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +13.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 6.3% | -5.8% | +695.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 4.8% | -15.1% | +647.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2002 | 22 | 24.5% | +5.8% | +618.2% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.7% | +22.8% | +626.9% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 10 | 6.4% | +25.2% | +623.7% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 3 | 2.0% | +25.8% | +637.4% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.4% | +621.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 4 | 4.2% | -45.3% | +267.3% |
| Aug 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.0% | -24.6% | +255.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2010 | 116 | 76.3% | -13.5% | +345.1% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 3.9% | -31.9% | +322.5% |
| Jul 2011 | Feb 2012 | 31 | 33.3% | -24.1% | +324.5% |
| Apr 2012 | Sep 2012 | 21 | 22.1% | +6.0% | +384.6% |
| Sep 2012 | Dec 2012 | 15 | 8.7% | +41.5% | +395.3% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 0.1% | +46.9% | +376.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.2% | +47.3% | +372.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 4.6% | +33.6% | +272.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 5 | 14.7% | +38.1% | +299.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 5.7% | +27.3% | +266.6% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 3.3% | +26.4% | +257.2% |
| May 2016 | Oct 2016 | 18 | 12.8% | +20.0% | +246.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 7.4% | +21.6% | +221.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 8.9% | +26.4% | +209.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 1.1% | -39.5% | +198.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.6% | +41.4% | +181.5% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 4.5% | +49.6% | +113.2% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +45.5% |
| Average | 12 | — | +13.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MET below its 200-week moving average?
No. MetLife Inc. (MET) is currently 38.0% above its 200-week moving average of $70.38. It would need to fall to $70.38 to cross below the line.
What is MET's 200-week moving average price?
MetLife Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $70.38 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MET drops below its 200-week moving average?
MET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is MET a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MET as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.1%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MET compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.6 years, $100 invested in MET would have grown to $667, compared to $1032 for the S&P 500. That's 7.7% annualized vs 9.6% for the index. MET has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MET pay a dividend?
Yes. MetLife Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 245.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11