MELI
MercadoLibre Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) closed at $1546.81 as of 2026-05-15, trading 6.7% below its 200-week moving average of $1657.71. This places MELI in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 931 weeks of data, MELI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MELI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +52.1%.
With a market cap of $78.4 billion, MELI is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 31.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.8x book value.
Over the past 17.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MELI would have grown to $4454, compared to $808 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.6% vs 12.4% for the index — confirming MELI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 63.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MELI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MELI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying MELI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +61.5% after 12 months (median +72.0%), compared to +5.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +121.5% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MELI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MELI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MELI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1588.81 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1713.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1858.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2031.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2238.84 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
MELI has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +52.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2009 | 55 | 76.2% | -18.7% | +4634.0% |
| Aug 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 1.2% | +114.5% | +5059.3% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 4 | 2.8% | +74.3% | +1756.2% |
| Sep 2015 | Nov 2015 | 7 | 11.3% | +78.6% | +1465.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 14.0% | +71.0% | +1440.2% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 2.3% | +31.0% | +73.5% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 13 | 33.6% | +34.1% | +66.8% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 21 | 24.3% | +31.9% | +70.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | -3.3% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 6.7% | Ongoing | -5.3% |
| Average | 11 | — | +52.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MELI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is trading 6.7% below its 200-week moving average of $1657.71. The current price is $1546.81.
What is MELI's 200-week moving average price?
MercadoLibre Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $1657.71 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MELI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MELI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +52.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is MELI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MELI as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 31.3%. Price-to-book is 10.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MELI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.9 years, $100 invested in MELI would have grown to $4454, compared to $808 for the S&P 500. That's 23.6% annualized vs 12.4% for the index. MELI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15