MDLZ
Mondelez International Inc. Consumer Staples - Snacks Investor Relations →
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) closed at $60.44 as of 2026-05-15, trading 3.0% below its 200-week moving average of $62.34. This places MDLZ in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1252 weeks of data, MDLZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MDLZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.8%.
With a market cap of $77.6 billion, MDLZ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 24.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MDLZ would have grown to $391, compared to $1069 for the S&P 500. MDLZ has returned 5.8% annualized vs 10.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MDLZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MDLZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying MDLZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.4% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.1% vs +25.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MDLZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MDLZ would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MDLZ's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $56.22 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $59.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $62.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $66.92 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $71.46 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
MDLZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +11.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.8% | -15.8% | +381.6% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2004 | 56 | 23.7% | +3.4% | +422.3% |
| Mar 2004 | Oct 2004 | 32 | 9.7% | +3.9% | +396.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Mar 2005 | 1 | 1.8% | -0.1% | +399.0% |
| Apr 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | 6.2% | -6.1% | +394.6% |
| May 2005 | Apr 2006 | 46 | 12.0% | +5.7% | +388.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 3 | 0.6% | +16.8% | +404.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 4 | 5.5% | -1.4% | +382.4% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 2.2% | -21.7% | +386.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 6 | 7.1% | -9.3% | +393.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2010 | 65 | 26.8% | -0.2% | +419.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 1.9% | +16.8% | +380.3% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.1% | +32.4% | +376.6% |
| Oct 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 6.5% | +70.3% | +338.1% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 8 | 3.3% | +27.8% | +83.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +34.4% | +81.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 3.0% | +39.2% | +78.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.2% | +37.2% | +63.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 11 | 11.0% | -10.0% | +0.8% |
| Aug 2025 | Ongoing | 41+ | 15.2% | Ongoing | +0.3% |
| Average | 14 | — | +11.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDLZ below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) is trading 3.0% below its 200-week moving average of $62.34. The current price is $60.44.
What is MDLZ's 200-week moving average price?
Mondelez International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $62.34 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MDLZ drops below its 200-week moving average?
MDLZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is MDLZ a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MDLZ as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MDLZ compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.1 years, $100 invested in MDLZ would have grown to $391, compared to $1069 for the S&P 500. That's 5.8% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. MDLZ has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MDLZ pay a dividend?
Yes. Mondelez International Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 331.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15