MA
Mastercard Incorporated Financial Services - Payments Investor Relations →
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) closed at $543.60 as of 2026-07-17, trading 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $462.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1003 weeks of data, MA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.5%.
With a market cap of $480.3 billion, MA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 232.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 71.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MA would have grown to $4448, compared to $714 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.7% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming MA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 17.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.0% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +27.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.3% vs +55.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $434.31 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $456.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $480.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $506.99 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $536.94 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +49.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 17.2% | +41.8% | +3829.5% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 6.0% | +68.7% | +4081.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 8.4% | +37.9% | +89.7% |
| Average | 8 | — | +49.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is currently 17.5% above its 200-week moving average of $462.49. It would need to fall to $462.49 to cross below the line.
What is MA's 200-week moving average price?
Mastercard Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $462.49 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is MA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MA as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 232.1%. Price-to-book is 71.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.3 years, $100 invested in MA would have grown to $4448, compared to $714 for the S&P 500. That's 21.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. MA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MA pay a dividend?
Yes. Mastercard Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 63.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17