MA
Mastercard Incorporated Financial Services - Payments Investor Relations →
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) closed at $569.19 as of 2026-09-11, trading 20.2% above its 200-week moving average of $473.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 22.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, MA is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1011 weeks of data, MA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.5%.
With a market cap of $498.6 billion, MA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 241.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 89.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MA would have grown to $4658, compared to $734 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 17.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.0% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +27.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.3% vs +55.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $518.14 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $535.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $554.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $575.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $597.24 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $4.78 | $5.04 | +5.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | $4.41 | $4.60 | +4.2% |
| 2026-01-29 | $4.24 | $4.76 | +12.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $4.31 | $4.38 | +1.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +49.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 17.2% | +41.8% | +4014.5% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 6.0% | +68.7% | +4278.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 8.4% | +37.9% | +98.6% |
| Average | 8 | — | +49.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is currently 20.2% above its 200-week moving average of $473.36. It would need to fall to $473.36 to cross below the line.
What is MA's 200-week moving average price?
Mastercard Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $473.36 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is MA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MA as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 241.2%. Price-to-book is 89.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.5 years, $100 invested in MA would have grown to $4658, compared to $734 for the S&P 500. That's 21.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MA pay a dividend?
Yes. Mastercard Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 62.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11