LUV
Southwest Airlines Co. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) closed at $48.08 as of 2026-07-17, trading 50.3% above its 200-week moving average of $32.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2380 weeks of data, LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LUV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.6%.
With a market cap of $23.5 billion, LUV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.1%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LUV would have grown to $1395, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. LUV has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LUV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LUV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying LUV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.4% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.3% vs +22.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LUV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LUV currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LUV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LUV has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +3.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 1.6% | +93.2% | +14008.6% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 3 | 12.7% | +65.8% | +7331.1% |
| Aug 1984 | Oct 1984 | 8 | 11.0% | +48.9% | +7135.6% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.8% | +33.4% | +6937.9% |
| Feb 1986 | Oct 1986 | 36 | 19.0% | +8.4% | +5994.9% |
| Oct 1986 | Feb 1987 | 14 | 16.3% | -37.4% | +5677.7% |
| Mar 1987 | Jan 1989 | 97 | 44.1% | -26.3% | +5601.2% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 1.0% | +61.0% | +6383.4% |
| Sep 1990 | Sep 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +75.8% | +6201.6% |
| Dec 1994 | Apr 1995 | 19 | 21.6% | +49.2% | +1624.2% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 6 | 13.9% | -0.4% | +1170.1% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 6 | 3.7% | -3.6% | +1142.5% |
| Jul 1996 | Apr 1997 | 41 | 21.7% | +4.9% | +1060.9% |
| May 1997 | Jul 1997 | 5 | 4.2% | +55.4% | +1058.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.1% | +7.1% | +337.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 19 | 23.0% | +18.9% | +281.0% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 22.5% | +3.8% | +274.5% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 1.1% | -7.6% | +267.1% |
| Dec 2003 | Oct 2005 | 98 | 20.6% | +0.3% | +258.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | -4.7% | +270.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 3 | 3.8% | -8.2% | +274.9% |
| Dec 2006 | Jan 2007 | 2 | 2.3% | -15.7% | +270.3% |
| Jan 2007 | Feb 2007 | 3 | 4.1% | -22.1% | +264.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Jul 2007 | 19 | 8.2% | -15.4% | +268.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Jul 2008 | 49 | 23.3% | +0.9% | +274.3% |
| Aug 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.0% | -42.7% | +281.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2010 | 75 | 63.7% | -33.6% | +282.2% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 11.5% | +2.6% | +374.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 8.1% | -24.9% | +395.5% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 2 | 0.3% | -30.7% | +385.9% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 4.1% | -23.2% | +399.7% |
| Jul 2011 | Dec 2012 | 75 | 33.2% | -16.1% | +408.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +21.9% | +11.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 8.0% | +26.1% | +19.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -29.7% | +8.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 3.9% | -28.6% | +10.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 2.5% | -34.8% | +7.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 49 | 49.1% | +24.1% | +11.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 4.3% | -17.6% | +7.5% |
| Oct 2021 | Jul 2025 | 194 | 44.7% | -34.3% | +4.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 4 | 10.6% | N/A | +50.6% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | N/A | +53.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 4.0% | N/A | +60.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +3.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is currently 50.3% above its 200-week moving average of $32.00. It would need to fall to $32.00 to cross below the line.
What is LUV's 200-week moving average price?
Southwest Airlines Co.'s 200-week moving average is $32.00 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LUV drops below its 200-week moving average?
LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is LUV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LUV as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.1%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LUV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in LUV would have grown to $1395, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. LUV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LUV pay a dividend?
Yes. Southwest Airlines Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 146.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17