LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation Industrials - Defense Investor Relations →
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) closed at $508.77 as of 2026-07-17, trading 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $462.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3319 weeks of data, LMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LMT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.2%.
With a market cap of $117.3 billion, LMT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 67.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LMT would have grown to $6926, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.4% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming LMT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LMT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LMT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying LMT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.6% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.6% vs +13.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LMT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LMT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LMT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $435.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $528.29 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $671.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $919.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1461.04 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LMT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LMT has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +15.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1963 | Aug 1963 | 3 | 2.6% | +3.9% | +54871.7% |
| Sep 1963 | Nov 1963 | 7 | 6.6% | +18.8% | +57902.9% |
| Nov 1963 | Nov 1963 | 1 | 8.1% | +19.1% | +59311.2% |
| Dec 1963 | Feb 1964 | 7 | 7.8% | +5.3% | +54788.6% |
| Feb 1964 | Feb 1964 | 1 | 1.9% | +25.4% | +55536.7% |
| Apr 1964 | Aug 1964 | 17 | 9.6% | +24.3% | +54567.4% |
| Nov 1967 | Dec 1967 | 3 | 1.5% | +8.9% | +34974.4% |
| Jan 1968 | Apr 1968 | 11 | 18.1% | +8.2% | +35617.2% |
| Jul 1968 | Aug 1968 | 2 | 2.6% | -48.2% | +32548.7% |
| Nov 1968 | Apr 1975 | 337 | 82.1% | -55.7% | +31480.5% |
| Oct 1975 | Nov 1975 | 4 | 4.3% | +20.0% | +206845.3% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 2 | 1.6% | +20.7% | +213980.9% |
| May 1987 | May 1987 | 1 | 1.6% | -1.9% | +11032.6% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1989 | 67 | 28.3% | +15.3% | +12227.1% |
| Oct 1989 | Feb 1991 | 67 | 37.6% | -37.6% | +10175.1% |
| Dec 1998 | Feb 2001 | 114 | 60.0% | -51.7% | +2335.3% |
| Mar 2001 | May 2001 | 9 | 7.4% | +57.8% | +2535.7% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 4 | 3.4% | +98.9% | +2624.6% |
| Mar 2004 | Mar 2004 | 2 | 1.8% | +36.1% | +2022.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Jun 2011 | 140 | 30.0% | -1.9% | +1058.9% |
| Jul 2011 | Nov 2011 | 20 | 12.9% | +16.6% | +921.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.5% | +25.2% | +106.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.9% | +25.9% | +83.5% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 1.2% | +50.0% | +73.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.6% | +71.7% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | +58.8% | +25.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 2.7% | N/A | +24.1% |
| Average | 31 | — | +15.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is currently 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $462.62. It would need to fall to $462.62 to cross below the line.
What is LMT's 200-week moving average price?
Lockheed Martin Corporation's 200-week moving average is $462.62 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LMT drops below its 200-week moving average?
LMT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is LMT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LMT as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 67.6%. Price-to-book is 15.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LMT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in LMT would have grown to $6926, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 13.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. LMT has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LMT pay a dividend?
Yes. Lockheed Martin Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 269.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17