LLY
Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) closed at $1179.11 as of 2026-07-17, trading 64.8% above its 200-week moving average of $715.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 67.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, LLY is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2776 weeks of data, LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -0.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
Return on equity stands at 107.5%, indicating strong profitability.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LLY would have grown to $20288, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming LLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 8 open-market purchases totaling $4,537,301. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying LLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.8% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 18% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -10.5% vs -1.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LLY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LLY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $801.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $874.52 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $962.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1070.50 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1205.59 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LLY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +-0.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 3 | 8.2% | -16.0% | +111139.2% |
| Oct 1973 | Oct 1973 | 1 | 0.9% | -24.8% | +109339.1% |
| Nov 1973 | Jun 1974 | 27 | 21.2% | -8.1% | +109066.2% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 33 | 23.9% | +7.1% | +112350.2% |
| Mar 1975 | May 1975 | 7 | 8.9% | -23.2% | +115551.1% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1978 | 158 | 39.4% | -25.2% | +113138.4% |
| Sep 1978 | Sep 1978 | 1 | 0.1% | +28.8% | +157075.2% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 9 | 11.1% | +24.0% | +167173.1% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 5.1% | +21.4% | +142747.5% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 2.8% | +24.4% | +138655.6% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 9.8% | +39.0% | +138531.0% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 1.6% | +71.3% | +108843.3% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1994 | 107 | 31.3% | -17.6% | +18114.2% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 4.3% | +26.4% | +3949.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 2.2% | -10.1% | +3001.6% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2003 | 84 | 35.8% | -17.0% | +2957.8% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 2 | 0.3% | -18.7% | +3128.7% |
| Jan 2004 | Feb 2004 | 4 | 2.6% | -14.9% | +3187.0% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 4 | 6.2% | -21.6% | +3121.3% |
| Jul 2004 | Oct 2006 | 117 | 22.1% | -13.9% | +3183.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 24 | 9.4% | -4.8% | +3525.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 2.9% | -10.1% | +3574.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Apr 2011 | 183 | 41.4% | -37.5% | +3709.2% |
| Average | 34 | — | +-0.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is currently 64.8% above its 200-week moving average of $715.63. It would need to fall to $715.63 to cross below the line.
What is LLY's 200-week moving average price?
Eli Lilly and Company's 200-week moving average is $715.63 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
LLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -0.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is LLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LLY as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Return on equity is 107.5%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in LLY would have grown to $20288, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 17.1% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. LLY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LLY pay a dividend?
Yes. Eli Lilly and Company currently pays a dividend yield of 59.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17