KMX
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CarMax Inc. (KMX) closed at $61.32 as of 2026-09-11, trading 6.9% below its 200-week moving average of $65.85. This places KMX in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, KMX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1496 weeks of data, KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.4%.
With a market cap of $8.7 billion, KMX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 3.6%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMX would have grown to $1595, compared to $1270 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.1% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming KMX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 7 open-market purchases totaling $1,858,984. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while KMX is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KMX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KMX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.5% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices KMX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where KMX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $36.17 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $41.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $48.41 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $58.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $73.17 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | $0.94 | $1.31 | +38.8% |
| 2026-04-14 | $0.22 | $-0.85 | -479.7% |
| 2025-12-18 | $0.32 | $0.43 | +36.1% |
| 2025-09-25 | $1.04 | $0.64 | -38.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from KMX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
KMX has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +22.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1998 | Mar 2001 | 167 | 82.6% | -34.2% | +1535.2% |
| Jul 2004 | Sep 2004 | 10 | 8.3% | +33.2% | +517.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 5.4% | -51.2% | +268.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2009 | 65 | 64.7% | -22.5% | +243.0% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +73.9% | +228.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.7% | +39.7% | +31.0% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.1% | +25.6% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 9.2% | +21.0% | +24.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 6.0% | +46.8% | +17.2% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +3.8% | +3.3% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 7 | 6.1% | +58.0% | -1.1% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 10 | 6.4% | +54.5% | -1.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 36.7% | +93.3% | -11.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 10.8% | -24.3% | -33.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 213+ | 57.3% | Ongoing | -36.3% |
| Average | 34 | — | +22.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, CarMax Inc. (KMX) is trading 6.9% below its 200-week moving average of $65.85. The current price is $61.32.
What is KMX's 200-week moving average price?
CarMax Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $65.85 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KMX drops below its 200-week moving average?
KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is KMX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KMX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 3.6%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KMX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in KMX would have grown to $1595, compared to $1270 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. KMX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11