KMX
CarMax Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Auto Retail Investor Relations →
CarMax Inc. (KMX) closed at $41.86 as of 2026-03-20, trading 40.4% below its 200-week moving average of $70.18. This places KMX in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -40.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1471 weeks of data, KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought KMX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.4%.
With a market cap of $6.1 billion, KMX is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 28.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in KMX would have grown to $1089, compared to $1075 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 8.8% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming KMX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: KMX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After KMX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying KMX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.1% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.5% vs +29.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment KMX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
KMX has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +22.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1998 | Mar 2001 | 167 | 82.6% | -34.2% | +1016.3% |
| Jul 2004 | Sep 2004 | 10 | 8.3% | +33.2% | +321.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 5.4% | -51.2% | +151.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Sep 2009 | 65 | 64.7% | -22.5% | +134.1% |
| Jul 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.5% | +73.9% | +124.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.7% | +39.7% | -10.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.1% | -14.3% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 9.2% | +21.0% | -15.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 6.0% | +46.8% | -20.0% |
| Mar 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +3.8% | -29.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 7 | 6.1% | +58.0% | -32.5% |
| Jan 2019 | Mar 2019 | 10 | 6.4% | +54.5% | -32.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 36.7% | +93.3% | -39.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 15 | 10.8% | -24.3% | -54.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Ongoing | 188+ | 57.3% | Ongoing | -56.5% |
| Average | 33 | — | +22.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, CarMax Inc. (KMX) is trading 40.4% below its 200-week moving average of $70.18. The current price is $41.86.
What is KMX's 200-week moving average price?
CarMax Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $70.18 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when KMX drops below its 200-week moving average?
KMX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is KMX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about KMX as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 10.6%. Return on equity is 7.5%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does KMX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.2 years, $100 invested in KMX would have grown to $1089, compared to $1075 for the S&P 500. That's 8.8% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. KMX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20