JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →

NO
61.6% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 63.5% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $220.49
14-Week RSI 80
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.7x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.26

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) closed at $356.23 as of 2026-09-11, trading 61.6% above its 200-week moving average of $220.49. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 63.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, JPM is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.26 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2377 weeks of data, JPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought JPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.9%.

With a market cap of $946.9 billion, JPM is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.1% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in JPM would have grown to $6902, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming JPM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: JPM vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After JPM Crosses Below the Line?

Across 23 historical episodes, buying JPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.2% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.5% vs +18.4% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment JPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. JPM currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.

Current Bean Score +0.62σ
Current FCF Yield -17.16%
Baseline Yield -18.36%
Historical σ 0.43pp

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-14$5.80$6.14+5.9%
2026-04-14$5.51$5.94+7.8%
2026-01-13$4.82$4.63-3.9%
2025-10-14$4.87$5.07+4.0%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 23 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from JPM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -1.61σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.24σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.76σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.8pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+103.1pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

JPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +25.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
May 1982Sep 19821713.5%+59.8%+24438.7%
May 1984Jul 198455.2%+86.4%+21307.9%
Jul 1984Jul 198410.5%+81.1%+20086.2%
Oct 1987Mar 19897442.1%-3.2%+11423.2%
Nov 1989Jun 19917957.7%-60.7%+10634.4%
Jun 1991Jul 199138.3%+67.1%+13340.4%
Nov 1991Dec 1991612.7%+66.0%+13064.8%
Oct 2000Dec 2000913.6%-14.4%+1774.9%
Mar 2001Apr 200138.4%-12.6%+1671.0%
Jun 2001Sep 200312160.0%-21.0%+1557.6%
Mar 2008Mar 200827.6%-55.9%+1409.6%
Jun 2008Jul 2008716.2%-8.3%+1321.0%
Aug 2008Sep 200845.2%+14.1%+1361.0%
Oct 2008Aug 20094259.1%+19.1%+1303.3%
Jan 2010Feb 201044.1%+16.2%+1284.6%
May 2010Jul 20101110.5%+9.2%+1257.7%
Aug 2010Nov 2010128.2%-2.9%+1342.3%
Nov 2010Nov 201025.1%-20.6%+1270.6%
Aug 2011Jan 20122624.5%-1.0%+1318.5%
May 2012Aug 20121314.0%+36.3%+1311.0%
Mar 2020Jun 20201113.6%+92.7%+407.3%
Jun 2020Jul 202045.7%+56.1%+328.6%
Jul 2020Aug 202011.6%+61.5%+329.6%
Aug 2020Aug 202011.4%+63.5%+326.6%
Sep 2020Oct 202036.1%+64.9%+322.1%
Oct 2020Nov 202011.2%+77.6%+319.6%
May 2022May 202211.3%+22.6%+237.4%
Jun 2022Oct 20221812.5%+31.0%+250.3%
Average17+25.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is JPM below its 200-week moving average?

No. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is currently 61.6% above its 200-week moving average of $220.49. It would need to fall to $220.49 to cross below the line.

What is JPM's 200-week moving average price?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s 200-week moving average is $220.49 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when JPM drops below its 200-week moving average?

JPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.

Is JPM a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about JPM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Return on equity is 17.8%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does JPM compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in JPM would have grown to $6902, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 13.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. JPM has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does JPM pay a dividend?

Yes. JPMorgan Chase & Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 170.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-11