IP
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International Paper Company (IP) closed at $34.36 as of 2026-09-11, trading 9.8% below its 200-week moving average of $38.11. This places IP in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -2.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3327 weeks of data, IP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 59 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.1%.
With a market cap of $18.2 billion, IP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -16.5%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 50.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IP would have grown to $344, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. IP has returned 3.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $4,321,260. Notably, these purchases occurred while IP is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying IP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.6% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.3% vs +24.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices IP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where IP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $35.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $38.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.32 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.94 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $0.04 | +205.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.14 | $0.15 | +5.4% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.25 | $-0.08 | -131.9% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.59 | $-0.43 | -173.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from IP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
IP has crossed below its 200-week MA 59 times with an average 1-year return of +16.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Jan 1963 | 6 | 6.9% | +21.7% | +5257.6% |
| Feb 1963 | Mar 1963 | 4 | 5.7% | +18.7% | +5309.4% |
| Jul 1963 | Jul 1963 | 3 | 0.9% | +16.9% | +4915.4% |
| Jul 1965 | Aug 1965 | 2 | 0.5% | -1.5% | +4463.8% |
| Nov 1965 | Dec 1965 | 1 | 0.8% | -11.1% | +4463.4% |
| May 1966 | Apr 1967 | 50 | 16.1% | +11.0% | +4384.8% |
| Aug 1967 | Dec 1967 | 18 | 11.8% | +24.9% | +4376.3% |
| Feb 1968 | Apr 1968 | 8 | 5.5% | +40.5% | +4264.5% |
| May 1970 | May 1970 | 2 | 3.3% | +33.8% | +3604.1% |
| Jun 1970 | Jun 1970 | 1 | 2.7% | +21.4% | +3635.7% |
| Nov 1970 | Nov 1970 | 1 | 1.0% | -0.5% | +3419.7% |
| Jul 1971 | Aug 1971 | 1 | 1.2% | +16.3% | +3215.8% |
| Aug 1971 | Aug 1971 | 1 | 3.2% | +24.0% | +3270.2% |
| Sep 1971 | Sep 1971 | 1 | 1.9% | +13.8% | +3191.6% |
| Oct 1971 | Nov 1971 | 6 | 10.6% | +16.7% | +3204.4% |
| Jul 1973 | Jul 1973 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.5% | +2858.2% |
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 2 | 3.9% | +63.4% | +2524.1% |
| Dec 1974 | Jan 1975 | 8 | 14.0% | +75.2% | +2827.0% |
| Jun 1977 | Jul 1980 | 161 | 27.2% | -17.3% | +1596.6% |
| Oct 1981 | Oct 1981 | 1 | 0.5% | +38.3% | +1715.2% |
| Jan 1982 | Aug 1982 | 30 | 10.1% | +53.1% | +1750.0% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 3.1% | +62.3% | +440.7% |
| Oct 1993 | Oct 1993 | 2 | 4.2% | +31.0% | +267.9% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 1.0% | +24.2% | +252.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 2 | 5.1% | +33.7% | +148.6% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 2.3% | +36.6% | +137.0% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 1999 | 2 | 5.7% | +24.7% | +135.2% |
| Mar 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 3.6% | -8.3% | +137.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Dec 2001 | 98 | 37.1% | -11.9% | +121.4% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 5.3% | +2.3% | +134.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 14.4% | +2.7% | +134.3% |
| Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 3 | 2.7% | +23.4% | +138.7% |
| Feb 2005 | Feb 2005 | 1 | 1.2% | -9.6% | +122.9% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2006 | 56 | 25.7% | -4.7% | +121.4% |
| May 2006 | Aug 2006 | 14 | 9.5% | +15.7% | +131.1% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 3 | 2.4% | +5.6% | +131.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Jan 2007 | 15 | 8.5% | +6.8% | +133.1% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 4.1% | -11.4% | +128.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2009 | 108 | 85.1% | -55.0% | +124.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 10.1% | +16.2% | +186.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 6 | 10.9% | +40.2% | +201.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Oct 2010 | 17 | 15.3% | +38.9% | +207.8% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 3 | 6.4% | +27.1% | +44.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2016 | 23 | 18.5% | +18.6% | +43.9% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 4.8% | +32.0% | +35.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 2 | 2.3% | +39.8% | +34.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 15 | 15.4% | +2.0% | +22.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | -0.8% | +12.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 2 | 2.7% | -22.9% | +12.1% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 2.7% | -24.8% | +14.8% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 26 | 16.8% | -21.1% | +11.7% |
| Dec 2019 | Oct 2020 | 41 | 35.0% | +17.2% | +10.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Mar 2024 | 79 | 22.4% | +2.4% | +17.4% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 11.8% | +31.0% | +2.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 4.0% | N/A | -6.7% |
| Dec 2025 | Dec 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | N/A | -7.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 15 | 21.6% | N/A | -5.3% |
| Jul 2026 | Jul 2026 | 2 | 1.3% | N/A | -8.4% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 9.8% | Ongoing | -7.7% |
| Average | 16 | — | +16.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, International Paper Company (IP) is trading 9.8% below its 200-week moving average of $38.11. The current price is $34.36.
What is IP's 200-week moving average price?
International Paper Company's 200-week moving average is $38.11 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IP drops below its 200-week moving average?
IP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 59 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is IP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IP as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 9.1%. Return on equity is -16.5%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in IP would have grown to $344, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 3.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. IP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IP pay a dividend?
Yes. International Paper Company currently pays a dividend yield of 540.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11