INTU

Intuit Inc. Technology - Software Investor Relations →

YES
46.2% BELOW
↑ Moving away Was -49.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $541.06
14-Week RSI 37
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.84

Intuit Inc. (INTU) closed at $291.09 as of 2026-07-17, trading 46.2% below its 200-week moving average of $541.06. This places INTU in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -49.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1692 weeks of data, INTU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought INTU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.6%.

With a market cap of $79.6 billion, INTU is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 22.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.

INTU passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 32.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in INTU would have grown to $8804, compared to $2822 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming INTU as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $541,665. Notably, these purchases occurred while INTU is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: INTU vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After INTU Crosses Below the Line?

Across 25 historical episodes, buying INTU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.8% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +99.5% vs +30.3% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment INTU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices INTU would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.62σ
Current FCF Yield 10.24%
Baseline Yield 7.07%
Historical σ 1.04pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where INTU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-20.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$265.10Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$293.84Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$329.56Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$375.18Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$435.44Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from INTU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

3 stacked signals: yield, drawdown, value_vs_history
Yield Dislocation +3.88σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +2.12σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 10th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +3.5pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (+1.7pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-05-26PRABHU VASANT M.Director$541,6651,750N/A

Historical Touches

INTU has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +38.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 1994Aug 19941815.3%+129.8%+12432.6%
Sep 1996Nov 1996918.8%-20.3%+6093.4%
Dec 1996Jan 199723.4%+18.8%+6141.8%
Jan 1997Dec 19974736.9%+18.0%+6166.3%
Jan 1998Jan 199812.1%+148.0%+5586.5%
Aug 1998Sep 199834.6%+139.0%+4988.9%
Oct 1998Oct 199815.2%+102.6%+5038.0%
Mar 2001Apr 200136.3%+38.2%+2299.3%
Aug 2001Aug 200126.2%+37.6%+2075.8%
Sep 2001Sep 200112.3%+38.4%+1983.2%
Mar 2003May 2003811.9%+9.6%+1619.5%
Jul 2003Aug 200345.7%-11.7%+1539.1%
Mar 2004Mar 200421.3%+3.0%+1459.6%
Apr 2004Aug 20041916.1%+0.6%+1481.8%
Jan 2005Feb 200589.9%+30.7%+1513.3%
Apr 2005May 200546.5%+27.4%+1472.5%
May 2005Jun 200511.0%+29.7%+1452.7%
Oct 2005Oct 200522.4%+56.3%+1415.6%
Mar 2008Mar 200812.7%-0.7%+1204.5%
Jul 2008Jul 200811.2%+3.2%+1151.0%
Oct 2008Jun 20093421.4%+14.4%+1228.9%
Jun 2009Jul 200931.9%+23.2%+1095.3%
Aug 2009Oct 200962.2%+52.6%+1083.4%
Oct 2022Nov 202212.2%+39.0%-17.0%
Jan 2026Ongoing27+51.1%Ongoing-46.2%
Average8+38.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is INTU below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-07-17, Intuit Inc. (INTU) is trading 46.2% below its 200-week moving average of $541.06. The current price is $291.09.

What is INTU's 200-week moving average price?

Intuit Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $541.06 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when INTU drops below its 200-week moving average?

INTU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.

Is INTU a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about INTU as of 2026-07-17: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow yield is 6.6%. Return on equity is 22.5%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does INTU compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 32.5 years, $100 invested in INTU would have grown to $8804, compared to $2822 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. INTU has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does INTU pay a dividend?

Yes. Intuit Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 163.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-07-17