ILMN
Illumina Inc. Healthcare - Life Sciences Investor Relations →
Illumina Inc. (ILMN) closed at $142.54 as of 2026-05-15, trading 0.6% above its 200-week moving average of $141.76. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1298 weeks of data, ILMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ILMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.7%.
With a market cap of $21.6 billion, ILMN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.2x book value.
Over the past 24.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ILMN would have grown to $2381, compared to $954 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.6% vs 9.5% for the index — confirming ILMN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 106.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ILMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ILMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ILMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.0% after 12 months (median +46.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.5% vs +31.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ILMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ILMN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ILMN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $107.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $115.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $125.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $136.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $150.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
ILMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +45.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2001 | Nov 2004 | 175 | 83.9% | -52.9% | +2198.5% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.2% | +638.9% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.2% | +123.5% | +446.6% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +133.0% | +440.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Jan 2012 | 18 | 38.3% | +16.3% | +251.6% |
| May 2012 | Sep 2012 | 16 | 10.3% | +68.0% | +242.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Jan 2017 | 13 | 17.0% | +49.9% | +6.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 4.6% | +73.6% | -37.2% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 9 | 12.3% | -35.5% | -55.9% |
| Apr 2022 | Ongoing | 214+ | 68.5% | Ongoing | -56.5% |
| Average | 45 | — | +45.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ILMN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Illumina Inc. (ILMN) is currently 0.6% above its 200-week moving average of $141.76. It would need to fall to $141.76 to cross below the line.
What is ILMN's 200-week moving average price?
Illumina Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $141.76 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ILMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
ILMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +45.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is ILMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ILMN as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 33.8%. Price-to-book is 8.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ILMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.9 years, $100 invested in ILMN would have grown to $2381, compared to $954 for the S&P 500. That's 13.6% annualized vs 9.5% for the index. ILMN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15