IBM
International Business Machines Corporation Technology - IT Services Investor Relations →
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) closed at $241.77 as of 2026-03-20, trading 31.0% above its 200-week moving average of $184.61. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3302 weeks of data, IBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought IBM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.1%.
With a market cap of $226.9 billion, IBM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 35.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.9x book value.
IBM is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 278.00%. Share count has increased 3.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in IBM would have grown to $4179, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming IBM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: IBM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After IBM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying IBM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.9% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.2% vs +27.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment IBM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
IBM has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +7.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Apr 1963 | 16 | 11.1% | +22.1% | +24278.8% |
| Jul 1963 | Aug 1963 | 4 | 1.0% | +39.9% | +21895.9% |
| Oct 1966 | Oct 1966 | 1 | 1.2% | +94.3% | +17134.6% |
| May 1970 | Sep 1970 | 20 | 20.7% | +26.0% | +8993.0% |
| Oct 1970 | Nov 1970 | 5 | 1.3% | +7.9% | +8327.4% |
| Jul 1971 | Nov 1971 | 20 | 8.4% | +35.7% | +8123.6% |
| Sep 1973 | Oct 1973 | 3 | 5.5% | -32.6% | +7109.4% |
| Nov 1973 | Jan 1976 | 112 | 43.4% | -31.4% | +6944.7% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 6 | 2.4% | +16.1% | +6054.2% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 18 | 18.1% | +7.2% | +5980.9% |
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1981 | 1 | 0.1% | +9.5% | +5702.1% |
| Apr 1981 | Jan 1982 | 40 | 14.2% | +8.8% | +5678.3% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 2 | 0.8% | +82.2% | +5612.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 36 | 15.0% | +7.0% | +2162.6% |
| Jul 1988 | Jan 1989 | 27 | 10.3% | -1.4% | +2109.2% |
| Feb 1989 | May 1990 | 63 | 20.1% | -11.3% | +2034.0% |
| Jul 1990 | Nov 1990 | 16 | 9.9% | -5.7% | +2091.7% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 1.7% | -12.0% | +2107.3% |
| Apr 1991 | Sep 1991 | 20 | 7.5% | -13.8% | +2101.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1994 | 158 | 49.2% | -15.3% | +2157.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 3.5% | -28.9% | +438.3% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 1 | 1.7% | -18.1% | +393.6% |
| Apr 2002 | Jan 2004 | 93 | 44.7% | -16.3% | +399.7% |
| Mar 2004 | Nov 2004 | 34 | 8.6% | -1.1% | +413.0% |
| Mar 2005 | Mar 2005 | 1 | 0.0% | -5.8% | +431.8% |
| Apr 2005 | Nov 2005 | 31 | 16.8% | -4.9% | +442.0% |
| Dec 2005 | Mar 2006 | 13 | 3.8% | +15.8% | +465.3% |
| Mar 2006 | Oct 2006 | 28 | 11.7% | +15.9% | +470.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 19.7% | +46.5% | +416.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 7.8% | +46.0% | +404.9% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2016 | 107 | 28.9% | -8.1% | +149.5% |
| May 2017 | Oct 2017 | 24 | 8.1% | -3.4% | +139.7% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 2 | 1.4% | -13.7% | +144.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Jun 2018 | 7 | 2.3% | +1.4% | +146.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 3.5% | +3.2% | +150.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 20.9% | +6.3% | +148.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.1% | -1.0% | +152.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 6 | 6.6% | -4.9% | +152.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 3 | 4.2% | -3.8% | +147.6% |
| Oct 2019 | Jan 2020 | 12 | 1.6% | -1.4% | +148.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 29.3% | -3.6% | +150.3% |
| Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 7 | 5.9% | +19.8% | +163.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2021 | 2 | 0.4% | +33.5% | +145.4% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IBM below its 200-week moving average?
No. International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is currently 31.0% above its 200-week moving average of $184.61. It would need to fall to $184.61 to cross below the line.
What is IBM's 200-week moving average price?
International Business Machines Corporation's 200-week moving average is $184.61 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when IBM drops below its 200-week moving average?
IBM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is IBM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about IBM as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 35.2%. Price-to-book is 6.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does IBM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in IBM would have grown to $4179, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 11.9% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. IBM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does IBM pay a dividend?
Yes. International Business Machines Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 278.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20