HUM
Humana Inc. Healthcare - Insurance Investor Relations →
Humana Inc. (HUM) closed at $409.80 as of 2026-09-11, trading 18.9% above its 200-week moving average of $344.75. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2284 weeks of data, HUM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HUM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.9%.
With a market cap of $49.2 billion, HUM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HUM would have grown to $7730, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming HUM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -52.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HUM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HUM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying HUM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +57.5% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +23.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.3% vs +51.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HUM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HUM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HUM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $291.50 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $384.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $566.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1071.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9866.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $7.00 | $7.61 | +8.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $10.20 | $10.31 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | $-3.99 | $-3.96 | +0.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.83 | $3.24 | +14.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HUM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HUM has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +26.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1983 | Oct 1983 | 1 | 2.3% | +18.3% | +13731.2% |
| Nov 1983 | Jan 1984 | 6 | 12.3% | +12.6% | +13601.9% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 1 | 2.7% | +36.4% | +13766.2% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 1.2% | +40.6% | +12910.4% |
| Jun 1986 | Mar 1987 | 41 | 24.5% | +1.7% | +11223.8% |
| Apr 1987 | Jun 1987 | 10 | 8.7% | +10.6% | +11803.0% |
| Aug 1987 | Sep 1987 | 1 | 1.7% | -2.7% | +11056.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 23 | 32.7% | +9.0% | +10970.7% |
| Aug 1988 | Sep 1988 | 7 | 6.3% | +61.6% | +10895.4% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 5.6% | +71.3% | +10962.2% |
| Dec 1988 | Dec 1988 | 1 | 1.9% | +77.8% | +10962.2% |
| Nov 1991 | Nov 1991 | 1 | 1.7% | -10.6% | +6889.8% |
| Mar 1992 | Apr 1992 | 1 | 1.0% | +7.2% | +6513.9% |
| Apr 1992 | May 1992 | 2 | 1.5% | +14.2% | +6513.9% |
| May 1992 | Mar 1993 | 42 | 25.2% | +73.5% | +7156.4% |
| Mar 1993 | Apr 1993 | 4 | 12.0% | +177.0% | +6070.2% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 5 | 9.3% | +33.3% | +2627.4% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 2 | 4.1% | +21.5% | +2426.0% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 4 | 1.1% | +18.3% | +2409.2% |
| Dec 1996 | Feb 1997 | 6 | 7.7% | +11.2% | +2376.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Mar 1997 | 1 | 0.9% | +29.6% | +2297.3% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +34.5% | +2237.8% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1997 | 1 | 2.5% | -9.6% | +2147.0% |
| Dec 1997 | Feb 1998 | 9 | 12.4% | -8.7% | +2147.0% |
| Aug 1998 | Feb 2002 | 183 | 72.9% | -44.7% | +2469.1% |
| Nov 2002 | Apr 2003 | 25 | 17.2% | +80.9% | +4165.4% |
| Mar 2008 | Aug 2010 | 125 | 63.0% | -43.5% | +969.7% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +44.3% | +869.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 11.3% | +78.9% | +88.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2026 | 126 | 54.9% | -38.0% | -3.5% |
| Average | 21 | — | +26.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HUM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Humana Inc. (HUM) is currently 18.9% above its 200-week moving average of $344.75. It would need to fall to $344.75 to cross below the line.
What is HUM's 200-week moving average price?
Humana Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $344.75 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HUM drops below its 200-week moving average?
HUM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is HUM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HUM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 6.9%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HUM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in HUM would have grown to $7730, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 13.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HUM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HUM pay a dividend?
Yes. Humana Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 88.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11