HSY
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The Hershey Company (HSY) closed at $186.98 as of 2026-05-15, trading 1.2% below its 200-week moving average of $189.26. This places HSY in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -2.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, HSY is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2360 weeks of data, HSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HSY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
With a market cap of $37.9 billion, HSY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 23.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.0x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HSY would have grown to $3300, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming HSY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HSY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HSY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying HSY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +14.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.3% vs +27.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HSY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HSY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HSY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $127.76 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $142.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $161.68 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $186.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $220.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
HSY has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.0% | +3618.3% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 3 | 0.5% | +32.6% | +3548.7% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 2000 | 60 | 29.6% | -11.6% | +1243.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Mar 2010 | 137 | 33.4% | -24.6% | +528.0% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 2 | 0.9% | +19.0% | +189.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 2.5% | +26.1% | +183.5% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 14 | 5.0% | +30.0% | +146.4% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 2 | 1.5% | +3.7% | +11.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 2.1% | -8.1% | +7.7% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 6 | 4.5% | -6.6% | +6.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Jan 2026 | 70 | 23.4% | +0.5% | +2.1% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 4.4% | Ongoing | +3.3% |
| Average | 25 | — | +7.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSY below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, The Hershey Company (HSY) is trading 1.2% below its 200-week moving average of $189.26. The current price is $186.98.
What is HSY's 200-week moving average price?
The Hershey Company's 200-week moving average is $189.26 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HSY drops below its 200-week moving average?
HSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is HSY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HSY as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 23.2%. Price-to-book is 8.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HSY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in HSY would have grown to $3300, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. HSY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HSY pay a dividend?
Yes. The Hershey Company currently pays a dividend yield of 311.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15