HSY
The Hershey Company Consumer Staples - Confectionery Investor Relations →
The Hershey Company (HSY) closed at $171.42 as of 2026-07-17, trading 9.0% below its 200-week moving average of $188.35. This places HSY in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -7.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2369 weeks of data, HSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought HSY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.8%.
With a market cap of $34.8 billion, HSY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 23.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.3x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in HSY would have grown to $3025, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. HSY has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: HSY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After HSY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying HSY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +14.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.1% vs +28.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment HSY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices HSY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where HSY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $163.96 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $184.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $209.80 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $243.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $291.23 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from HSY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
HSY has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +7.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 1 | 0.8% | +24.9% | +3285.2% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 3 | 0.6% | +32.6% | +3245.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 2000 | 60 | 29.7% | -11.6% | +1131.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Mar 2010 | 137 | 33.4% | -24.6% | +475.8% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 2 | 1.0% | +19.0% | +165.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 2.5% | +26.1% | +159.9% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 14 | 5.1% | +30.0% | +125.9% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 2 | 1.6% | +3.7% | +1.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 2.1% | -8.1% | -1.2% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 6 | 4.6% | -6.6% | -2.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Jan 2026 | 70 | 23.5% | +0.5% | -6.4% |
| Apr 2026 | May 2026 | 3 | 4.5% | N/A | -5.3% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 9.0% | Ongoing | -7.1% |
| Average | 24 | — | +7.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSY below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-17, The Hershey Company (HSY) is trading 9.0% below its 200-week moving average of $188.35. The current price is $171.42.
What is HSY's 200-week moving average price?
The Hershey Company's 200-week moving average is $188.35 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when HSY drops below its 200-week moving average?
HSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is HSY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about HSY as of 2026-07-17: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 23.2%. Price-to-book is 7.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does HSY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in HSY would have grown to $3025, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. HSY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does HSY pay a dividend?
Yes. The Hershey Company currently pays a dividend yield of 332.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17