GSK
GSK plc Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
GSK plc (GSK) closed at $51.76 as of 2026-07-17, trading 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.70. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 40.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2368 weeks of data, GSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GSK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.7%.
Return on equity stands at 40.9%, indicating strong profitability.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GSK would have grown to $1052, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. GSK has returned 7.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GSK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GSK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 37 historical episodes, buying GSK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.3% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.2% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GSK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GSK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GSK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $46.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $51.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $57.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $64.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $72.99 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GSK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GSK has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +11.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1993 | May 1993 | 8 | 10.1% | +13.9% | +1085.4% |
| May 1993 | Sep 1993 | 14 | 22.6% | -8.0% | +1093.6% |
| Sep 1993 | Oct 1993 | 2 | 1.7% | -1.9% | +1012.9% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 4 | 5.1% | +4.9% | +998.6% |
| Jan 1994 | Dec 1994 | 50 | 21.4% | +9.6% | +977.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 3.6% | +46.2% | +933.6% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.6% | +24.0% | +272.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 6.7% | -0.3% | +234.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 6 | 9.1% | -19.7% | +208.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2003 | 107 | 33.2% | -24.7% | +204.8% |
| Dec 2003 | Dec 2003 | 1 | 0.9% | +4.5% | +237.5% |
| Jan 2004 | Sep 2004 | 35 | 10.2% | +5.3% | +235.4% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 2 | 1.1% | +28.7% | +252.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Jul 2008 | 24 | 12.6% | -23.6% | +178.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -13.0% | +172.0% |
| Aug 2008 | Dec 2009 | 70 | 36.3% | -9.1% | +171.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Aug 2010 | 34 | 17.4% | -0.5% | +187.7% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 2 | 4.2% | +26.6% | +200.2% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 1.1% | -2.1% | +114.8% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 1.6% | +0.6% | +115.0% |
| Jun 2015 | Aug 2015 | 9 | 4.8% | +8.3% | +108.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Apr 2016 | 34 | 10.8% | +14.9% | +112.1% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 2.7% | +11.6% | +101.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Feb 2017 | 17 | 8.6% | +4.4% | +98.3% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 3 | 2.8% | +9.5% | +100.0% |
| Oct 2017 | Mar 2018 | 22 | 10.3% | +14.8% | +114.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 9.8% | +15.9% | +103.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 4 | 9.7% | +12.9% | +81.7% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 1.6% | +28.1% | +81.6% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 6 | 7.1% | +34.4% | +86.1% |
| Mar 2021 | Apr 2021 | 1 | 1.0% | +29.2% | +80.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Apr 2023 | 34 | 20.2% | +2.1% | +68.3% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +18.7% | +63.2% |
| May 2023 | Sep 2023 | 16 | 6.1% | +31.2% | +63.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 4 | 3.1% | +12.5% | +62.0% |
| Nov 2024 | Feb 2025 | 12 | 7.5% | +47.5% | +64.7% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.9% | +74.8% | +56.8% |
| Average | 15 | — | +11.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GSK below its 200-week moving average?
No. GSK plc (GSK) is currently 37.3% above its 200-week moving average of $37.70. It would need to fall to $37.70 to cross below the line.
What is GSK's 200-week moving average price?
GSK plc's 200-week moving average is $37.70 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GSK drops below its 200-week moving average?
GSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is GSK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GSK as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Return on equity is 40.9%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GSK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in GSK would have grown to $1052, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 7.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. GSK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GSK pay a dividend?
Yes. GSK plc currently pays a dividend yield of 340.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17