GOOG

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Technology - Internet Services Investor Relations →

NO
127.0% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 131.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $173.23
14-Week RSI 68
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.0x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.81

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) closed at $393.32 as of 2026-05-15, trading 127.0% above its 200-week moving average of $173.23. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 131.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1086 weeks of data, GOOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GOOG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.8%.

With a market cap of $4.8 trillion, GOOG is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.6%. Return on equity stands at 38.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.9x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.9% over the past three years. GOOG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 20.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GOOG would have grown to $5533, compared to $876 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.2% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming GOOG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: GOOG vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After GOOG Crosses Below the Line?

Across 8 historical episodes, buying GOOG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.9% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +17.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.4% vs +37.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GOOG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GOOG would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.83σ
Current FCF Yield 3.00%
Baseline Yield 4.01%
Historical σ 0.45pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where GOOG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$112.46Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$124.31Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$138.94Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$157.48Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$181.73Unusually expensive — potential trim zone
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 19 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

0 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Advertisement

Historical Touches

GOOG has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +30.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2008Aug 20094439.1%+25.2%+4015.0%
May 2010May 201012.2%+11.0%+3272.8%
Jun 2010Sep 20101210.2%+0.5%+3268.3%
Jun 2011Jun 201126.0%+16.4%+3182.6%
Aug 2011Aug 201112.7%+37.9%+3143.2%
Oct 2022Nov 202217.4%+50.4%+357.4%
Dec 2022Jan 202367.6%+46.8%+326.1%
Feb 2023Mar 202357.6%+58.4%+318.0%
Average9+30.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is GOOG below its 200-week moving average?

No. Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) is currently 127.0% above its 200-week moving average of $173.23. It would need to fall to $173.23 to cross below the line.

What is GOOG's 200-week moving average price?

Alphabet Inc. (Class C)'s 200-week moving average is $173.23 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when GOOG drops below its 200-week moving average?

GOOG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.

Is GOOG a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about GOOG as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 0.6%. Return on equity is 38.9%. Price-to-book is 9.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does GOOG compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 20.9 years, $100 invested in GOOG would have grown to $5533, compared to $876 for the S&P 500. That's 21.2% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. GOOG has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does GOOG pay a dividend?

Yes. Alphabet Inc. (Class C) currently pays a dividend yield of 22.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-05-15