FSLR
First Solar Inc. Technology - Solar Investor Relations →
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) closed at $211.99 as of 2026-07-17, trading 10.5% above its 200-week moving average of $191.77. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 978 weeks of data, FSLR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FSLR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
Over the past 18.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FSLR would have grown to $145, compared to $678 for the S&P 500. FSLR has returned 2.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Growth of $100: FSLR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FSLR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying FSLR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.9% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.5% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FSLR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FSLR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FSLR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $144.51 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $166.65 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $196.80 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $240.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $308.39 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FSLR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FSLR has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 39.1% | +33.4% | +80.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Apr 2009 | 15 | 29.8% | -14.7% | +45.8% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 5.6% | -7.7% | +48.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 6 | 19.7% | -11.7% | +44.7% |
| Sep 2009 | Sep 2010 | 51 | 28.6% | -1.8% | +41.3% |
| Oct 2010 | Jan 2011 | 17 | 16.3% | -56.6% | +54.0% |
| Feb 2011 | Apr 2014 | 165 | 90.2% | -77.2% | +36.1% |
| May 2014 | Jun 2014 | 6 | 11.4% | -10.8% | +235.4% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 4 | 3.0% | -30.6% | +234.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Feb 2015 | 20 | 24.5% | -4.7% | +294.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2015 | 3 | 2.8% | +3.6% | +381.5% |
| Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | 1 | 1.6% | -14.4% | +389.7% |
| May 2016 | Oct 2017 | 76 | 47.8% | -25.1% | +336.6% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +19.9% | +315.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 24 | 22.3% | +29.5% | +337.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 2.2% | +100.0% | +327.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 33.1% | +77.0% | +363.2% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 5.3% | +260.6% | +229.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 4.9% | +182.4% | +211.8% |
| Feb 2025 | May 2025 | 11 | 16.5% | +44.8% | +55.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 5.8% | +77.7% | +46.2% |
| Average | 21 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Solar Inc. (FSLR) is currently 10.5% above its 200-week moving average of $191.77. It would need to fall to $191.77 to cross below the line.
What is FSLR's 200-week moving average price?
First Solar Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $191.77 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FSLR drops below its 200-week moving average?
FSLR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is FSLR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FSLR as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FSLR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.8 years, $100 invested in FSLR would have grown to $145, compared to $678 for the S&P 500. That's 2.0% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. FSLR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17