FDX
FedEx Corporation Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
FedEx Corporation (FDX) closed at $375.78 as of 2026-05-15, trading 54.0% above its 200-week moving average of $244.08. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 55.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2461 weeks of data, FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FDX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $89.7 billion, FDX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FDX would have grown to $3329, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming FDX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FDX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FDX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying FDX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.5% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.5% vs +18.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FDX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FDX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FDX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-11-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $255.97 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $284.76 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $320.85 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $367.42 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $429.80 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
FDX has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1979 | Jul 1979 | 13 | 14.4% | +70.3% | +30831.4% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 4 | 7.9% | +18.3% | +6156.9% |
| May 1984 | May 1984 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.5% | +6054.7% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | +59.7% | +5744.6% |
| Dec 1984 | Dec 1984 | 1 | 1.2% | +72.5% | +5590.2% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.4% | +91.9% | +5744.6% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 2 | 0.5% | +110.3% | +5464.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1989 | 64 | 29.1% | -6.2% | +3669.8% |
| Feb 1989 | Aug 1989 | 27 | 21.4% | -11.1% | +3456.4% |
| Sep 1989 | Mar 1990 | 27 | 17.1% | -29.4% | +3390.5% |
| May 1990 | Jan 1992 | 86 | 40.1% | -16.7% | +4020.0% |
| Jan 1992 | Feb 1992 | 2 | 3.3% | +29.4% | +4208.3% |
| Apr 1992 | Jun 1992 | 9 | 9.5% | +14.2% | +4348.1% |
| Jul 1992 | Oct 1992 | 15 | 18.6% | +27.4% | +4296.2% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 5.6% | +69.2% | +1991.4% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +17.5% | +1293.6% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.4% | +1288.5% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +45.1% | +1156.9% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.3% | +1126.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.6% | +47.7% | +1141.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 12.1% | +38.9% | +1267.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.3% | -34.6% | +394.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 62.2% | -35.8% | +382.1% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 16.2% | +15.7% | +447.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 14.1% | +23.8% | +517.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +16.0% | +493.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.1% | +48.6% | +247.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.7% | +242.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 17 | 17.2% | -8.6% | +132.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Aug 2020 | 68 | 43.9% | -32.0% | +131.9% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 3.6% | +17.8% | +103.2% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | +16.7% | +103.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 26.8% | +61.4% | +151.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.7% | +100.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 10.7% | +59.3% | +66.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 5.2% | N/A | +68.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +67.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +68.8% |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX below its 200-week moving average?
No. FedEx Corporation (FDX) is currently 54.0% above its 200-week moving average of $244.08. It would need to fall to $244.08 to cross below the line.
What is FDX's 200-week moving average price?
FedEx Corporation's 200-week moving average is $244.08 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FDX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is FDX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FDX as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 15.9%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FDX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in FDX would have grown to $3329, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FDX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FDX pay a dividend?
Yes. FedEx Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 154.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15