FDX
FedEx Corporation Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
FedEx Corporation (FDX) closed at $311.99 as of 2026-09-11, trading 47.6% above its 200-week moving average of $211.42. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 53.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2478 weeks of data, FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FDX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.9%.
With a market cap of $73.8 billion, FDX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.8%. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FDX would have grown to $3443, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming FDX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FDX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FDX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying FDX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.0% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +5.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.5% vs +18.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FDX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FDX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FDX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $299.00 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $309.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $321.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $333.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $347.43 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | $5.92 | $6.31 | +6.5% |
| 2026-03-19 | $4.18 | $5.25 | +25.5% |
| 2025-12-18 | $4.11 | $4.82 | +17.2% |
| 2025-09-18 | $3.61 | $3.83 | +6.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FDX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FDX has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +29.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1979 | Jul 1979 | 13 | 14.4% | +70.3% | +31889.4% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 4 | 7.9% | +18.3% | +6370.9% |
| May 1984 | May 1984 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.5% | +6265.2% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | +59.7% | +5944.5% |
| Dec 1984 | Dec 1984 | 1 | 1.2% | +72.5% | +5784.8% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.4% | +91.9% | +5944.5% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 2 | 0.5% | +110.3% | +5654.6% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1989 | 64 | 29.1% | -6.2% | +3798.7% |
| Feb 1989 | Aug 1989 | 27 | 21.4% | -11.1% | +3578.0% |
| Sep 1989 | Mar 1990 | 27 | 17.1% | -29.4% | +3509.9% |
| May 1990 | Jan 1992 | 86 | 40.1% | -16.7% | +4160.9% |
| Jan 1992 | Feb 1992 | 2 | 3.3% | +29.4% | +4355.7% |
| Apr 1992 | Jun 1992 | 9 | 9.5% | +14.2% | +4500.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Oct 1992 | 15 | 18.6% | +27.4% | +4446.6% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 5.6% | +69.2% | +2062.9% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +17.5% | +1341.3% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.4% | +1336.0% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +45.1% | +1199.9% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.3% | +1168.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.6% | +47.8% | +1183.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 12.1% | +38.9% | +1314.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.3% | -34.6% | +411.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 62.2% | -35.7% | +398.1% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 16.2% | +15.7% | +466.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 14.1% | +23.8% | +538.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 2.3% | +16.2% | +513.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.1% | +48.6% | +258.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.7% | +254.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 17 | 17.2% | -8.6% | +140.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Aug 2020 | 68 | 43.9% | -32.0% | +139.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 3.6% | +17.8% | +110.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | +16.7% | +110.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 26.8% | +61.4% | +160.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.3% | +25.6% | +105.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 14 | 10.8% | +59.3% | +72.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 5.2% | +74.7% | +74.2% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +79.2% | +73.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +74.6% |
| Average | 14 | — | +29.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX below its 200-week moving average?
No. FedEx Corporation (FDX) is currently 47.6% above its 200-week moving average of $211.42. It would need to fall to $211.42 to cross below the line.
What is FDX's 200-week moving average price?
FedEx Corporation's 200-week moving average is $211.42 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FDX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is FDX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FDX as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 7.7%. Return on equity is 14.8%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FDX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in FDX would have grown to $3443, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FDX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FDX pay a dividend?
Yes. FedEx Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 157.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11